According to the regulation of domestic refined oil price adjustment, the new window of retail price adjustment of refined oil will open again at 24:00 on March 17. Affected by the collapse of the international oil price and other factors, the domestic oil price may usher in a substantial reduction, 92 gasoline may return to the era of 5 yuan.
Some experts believe that since the fall of international oil prices in 2020, both demand and supply have exerted huge pressure on the market. On the one hand, the global spread of the disease has heightened concerns about weak oil demand. On the other hand, Opec and Russia failed to reach an agreement to cut output, while Saudi Arabia and other producers cut prices sharply while planning to increase output, which further caught the already nervous crude market off guard.
With the huge change in the market situation, several international institutions believe that once oil producers start to fight for market share, the international crude price may return to the $20 era. But many analysts also pointed out that the oil price collapse will not be a long-term trend, the market expects short-term oil prices or continued weakness, but after the full game, eventually may return to the original path of production cuts.
Since 2020, domestic finished oil prices have experienced four price adjustments, namely two price cuts and two grounding. Estimates from a number of institutions show that this round of price adjustment window is likely to be the biggest drop since 2013, when the current pricing regime was put in place. However, at present, WTI, brent crude oil futures prices are below $40 / BBL, whether the domestic oil price regulation will trigger "floor price" and lead to price adjustment of the suspension, delay or narrow range, is still uncertain.
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