Tesla in 2024 experienced a huge shock.

The reasons behind it are very complex, and in summary, both internal and external factors account for a certain proportion. According to Musk, "We are currently between the first growth curve and the second growth curve
Perhaps because of this, the sales expectations for 2025 have become very conservative, with only a target of a year-on-year growth of 20% -30%. Based on 1.8 million vehicles, a simple conversion would result in a maximum of 2.35 million vehicles.

Looking at this result, it can only be said that "Tesla, which once dominated the market, doubled its annual deliveries, and earned a lot of money, is gone forever. On the contrary, as its own halo gradually fades away, this American new energy vehicle company has also fallen into a difficult quagmire

However, the viewpoint remains that a lean camel is bigger than a horse.

Going back more than two months, I believe most people are convinced that "Tesla's performance in 2024 is bad enough, entering a new cycle will not be worse, it should hit the bottom and rebound." However, contrary to expectations, based solely on the performance in the past 60 days, the situation is far worse than imagined.

On the one hand, after becoming "Minister Ma", Musk's mind was completely detached from this American new energy vehicle company, and even brought great negative effects to the company; On the other hand, the increasingly cold domestic market in the United States and the approaching collapse of the European market have become unavoidable facts. And just this week, even greater 'bad news' struck again.

In fact, in the article "Does Tesla Still Have a Play This Year?" published last month, the following judgment was made:
In other words, whether the established sales target can be achieved in the ongoing 365 days depends largely on how high we can reach in China.
But in the just concluded month of February, Tesla's performance was surprising.
According to the terminal report released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, only 30688 new cars were sold in the Chinese market, a month on month decrease of 51.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.2%. That is to say, there has been the so-called 'double waist chopping'.
Regarding the underlying reasons, or related to the generational transition of the main product Model Y, the refreshed version has not yet started large-scale delivery; Or perhaps due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, there have been significant fluctuations in the order level.
However, it is worth noting that as Tesla's largest competitor in China and even globally, BYD's sales in February reached a year-on-year high, and even as a new force in car manufacturing, Xiaopeng sold 30453 units in February.
In summary, the protagonist of today's article has encountered another 'Waterloo' and is now certain.
Of course, just recently, with the official delivery of a refreshed version of the Model Y by a car owner, coupled with this American new energy vehicle company's habit of late season surge, it is highly likely that sales in China will rise again in March against the trend. However, such a huge fluctuation is ultimately not a good thing.