Recently, it was learned from a media briefing held by the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Congress in Beijing that the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Congress Forum (2025) will be held from March 28 to 30, 2025 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.

Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, stated that in the past few years, the electric vehicle industry has developed rapidly, and 2025 will be a crucial year to consolidate this achievement and strengthen infrastructure construction. Intelligence is becoming a new driving force for industrial upgrading. Intelligent technology will not only enhance user experience, but also promote the progress of electrification, forming a virtuous cycle of two-way driving. Faced with the problems arising from the rapid development of the industry, he pointed out that the current focus of industrial development is to shift from "fast" to "good", promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the automotive industry, and achieve high-quality development.

It is reported that the 2025 Hundred People's Congress Forum will focus on the theme of "strengthening electrification, promoting intelligence, and achieving high-quality development". Representatives from relevant government departments and fields such as automobiles, energy, transportation, cities, and communications will be invited to discuss various topics including the global and Chinese development situation of automobile electrification, driving and expanding automobile consumption, the development trend of intelligent connected vehicles, the development of "vehicle road cloud integration", as well as new technologies for power batteries, the application of artificial intelligence, big computing power, big models, big data and other technologies, the construction of high-quality charging infrastructure, the intelligent transformation of commercial vehicle electrification, and the global cooperation of new energy vehicles going global. 'Consolidating electrification, promoting intelligence, and achieving high-quality development' is not only the theme of the Diaoyutai Forum in 2025, but also the core direction of the development of the electric vehicle industry in the near future, "Zhang Yongwei emphasized. At the media communication meeting, Zhang Yongwei shared his insights and judgments on the future of the industry under the theme of "New Trends in the Development of New Energy Vehicles and Exploration of New Models for High Quality Development of the Automotive Industry".

Firstly, the automotive incremental market has entered a stage dominated by electricity. The new energy vehicle industry has gone through a period of rapid growth from 2021 to 2024, and now its penetration rate is close to or has reached half. Oil vehicles and electric vehicles are almost evenly matched, and people are beginning to pay attention to whether new energy vehicles can continue to maintain high-speed growth. Generally speaking, the development of various industries will go through a path of high-speed growth followed by a stable transition into maturity. From the overall situation of the Chinese automobile market, combined with the macro and industry's own development trajectory, the current automobile industry has entered a relatively stable stage of development, and automobiles play a key role in driving domestic demand and investment. It is expected that the total automobile sales (including exports) will reach approximately 32 million units by 2025, with a growth rate of 3%. Although new energy vehicles continue to grow rapidly, due to various boundary conditions, the growth rate will not be as rapid as in the previous three years. The Research Department of Chebai Think Tank optimistically predicts that by 2025, the total domestic and export sales of new energy vehicles will be about 16.5 million units, with a growth rate of about 30%. The domestic market sales will reach 15 million units, and with more than 1 million units exported, the scale can reach 16.5 million units. By then, its penetration rate will definitely exceed 50%, reaching about 55%, and entering a relatively high-quality development stage.

Secondly, plug-in hybrid and extended range technologies integrate advanced electric and fuel technologies, becoming an important force in the increment of new energy. Each technology has its own reasons for emergence and the most suitable application scenarios. Plug in and range extending technologies are expected to experience rapid development in 2025. By 2025, the proportion of these two technological routes in the new energy market is expected to approach 50%, reflecting the diversified development of the new energy industry. At the same time, this means that market competition has opened up paths for different technologies, and plug-in hybrid and extended range technologies integrate new energy electric technology with advanced fuel technology. Relying solely on electric technology or traditional fuel technology cannot form a competitive advantage in the plug-in hybrid field. However, this technology route has played a fusion advantage and found a development direction for enterprises, and many enterprises have verified its feasibility. Fusion technology not only helps to expand the incremental market, but also solves the problem of new positioning of different technologies, which is the characteristic of the Chinese market and the best way to quell related technological disputes.

Thirdly, new energy commercial vehicles have entered a period of rapid ramp up. The electrification of passenger cars has entered a stage of normalized development, while the electrification of commercial vehicles is entering a period of rapid growth. Currently, in some fields, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of new energy commercial vehicles throughout their lifecycle is more advantageous than that of fuel vehicles, which has led to a rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles. It is expected that by 2025, the number of new energy commercial vehicles in China will exceed 900000, approaching 1 million, with a growth rate of up to 80%, showing an explosive development trend. The development speed of new energy in various fields of commercial vehicles varies. For example, in the field of heavy-duty trucks, the penetration rate of new energy will grow rapidly. Conservatively estimated, the number of new energy heavy-duty trucks will exceed 110000 by 2025, with a penetration rate exceeding 20%; The application of new energy in the urban logistics and distribution market will also rapidly advance. Overall, the commercialization of new energy in commercial vehicles is showing a rapid development trend.

Fourthly, it is a crucial year for promoting the "new internationalization development" of new energy vehicles to take root and implement. Chinese car companies have ushered in a new international development environment. In the past, they attracted the global automotive industry to enter the Chinese market. Now, they need to rely on advanced manufacturing and products to go global, facing the transformation from "outward to inward" to "inward to outward". How to achieve this transformation is the biggest challenge, as they lack experience and need to explore new paths of international development. In the past, we mainly relied on trade to export complete vehicles, but encountered many trade barriers. In the future, we should shift from simple trade to investing and producing in the market location, move from the "old" trade model to a "new" trade and investment combination model, and shift from the previous tendency to go it alone to joint ventures and cooperation with the local area, building enterprises that coexist and integrate capital and production, and achieving internationalization through a new model of coordinated interests. In addition, it is not feasible to simply copy the domestic model to foreign countries in the past, as the situation varies greatly in different regions. In terms of regulations, standards, and other aspects, it is necessary to make up for the local development. Therefore, Chinese car companies need to consolidate their past advantages, adapt to new changes, and create a new international development model.

Fifth, the new generation of battery products represented by solid-state batteries will accelerate mass production. In terms of technology, 2025 is worth looking forward to, especially in the field of electrification, where semi-solid state batteries will accelerate their application in automobiles. Chinese car companies have actively launched batteries and vehicles containing solid-state technology content. It is expected that the solid-state batteries that will emerge in 2025 will be mostly semi-solid or quasi solid state. Currently, the entire industry chain is accelerating the development of solid-state batteries. Vehicle manufacturers, traditional battery companies, new forces in the battery industry, as well as materials, equipment and other related enterprises are all making efforts to enter this field with sufficient strength and capital, which has rapidly shortened the industrialization cycle of all solid state technology. According to industry experts and research, small batches of solid-state technology batteries for automotive applications will be realized in 2027 and 2028. The reason for the small batches is due to cost constraints rather than technological limitations. Luxury cars are expected to be the first to be applied, with considerable range. However, to achieve large-scale applications, it is necessary to enter a cost reduction cycle like lithium batteries.

Sixth, automobile companies are exploring new models for high-quality development. For car companies, local car companies need to explore new models of high-quality development, examine whether past development can be sustained and how to win in the future, because the development stage of the industry has changed, and past blindly expanding models are difficult to sustain in the relatively stable stage now. The development model of enterprises needs to be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the automotive industry is in the stage of "electrification and intelligence" development, which brings huge investment pressure to enterprises. Comprehensive independent research and development under the all-round thinking is becoming increasingly difficult. Enterprises need to invest selectively, focus on core competitiveness, and shift from comprehensive flowering to positioning focus. This is a strategic adjustment. In addition, in terms of production capacity, given that factory investment is a heavy asset, enterprises can explore production capacity cooperation models, such as outsourcing and utilizing the production capacity of other enterprises, to reduce investment and revitalize inventory. In terms of profit model, with the intelligent development of the automobile industry, profit will be more inclined to create customer value in the whole life cycle. It is not possible to judge the development of enterprises only by single car profit. Like the Internet industry, its profit model is combinatorial, so the evaluation of whether enterprises are profitable, high-quality development, health and other dimensions should change with the times. It is necessary to explore the establishment of a new standard system and new dimensions that can scientifically evaluate the industry and enterprise health.

Seventh, the main force of multinational car companies is accelerating localization development. Zhang Yongwei stated that multinational corporations are facing new pressures in China, but overall they are accelerating localization due to their unwillingness to give up on China's vast automotive market. Enterprises are experiencing differentiation, with some slow adjustment companies contracting or even exiting, while the main force of multinational car companies is still accelerating localization. In the past, cross-border localization was a "two pronged approach", where technology and supply chains were imported from the outside and manufactured and sold in China. Nowadays, there are two major changes in the new localization: firstly, in terms of technology research and development, many companies have set up research and development centers in China, utilizing the advantages of China's new energy and intelligent technology to achieve "in China, for the world". For example, a multinational component company upgraded its Chinese new energy vehicle research and development center to a global research and development center, serving global business with Chinese innovation; Secondly, in terms of market supply chain, the combination of China's supply chain and the globalization of multinational enterprises can enhance their global competitiveness. Multinational enterprises allow China's supply chain to go global with them, becoming a part of the global supply chain layout. For example, many Chinese component companies are expanding globally with global vehicle companies. These changes can not only enhance the competitiveness of multinational corporations, but also explore the new pattern of China's automotive industry serving the world, forming a global symbiotic development model, which is beneficial to the entire Chinese industry chain. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the development of multinational forces in China and utilize the new trend of China's global service.

Eighth, intelligence has entered a period of comprehensive acceleration. Electrification has gone through a long-term process, while intelligence is showing a comprehensive acceleration trend, "said Zhang Yongwei. This is mainly reflected in three aspects: firstly, the rapid entry of advanced intelligent technology into the mainstream market range of low-priced models priced between 100000 and 200000 yuan, which reflects the characteristics of the Chinese market;

The second is that the demand for intelligent market has shifted from focusing on "whether there is" to pursuing "whether it is good or not" and "fun and easy to use", which has become a new focus in the new stage, and having intelligence has become a basic requirement;

Thirdly, 2025 will be the first year of basic intelligence and enter the stage of comprehensive coverage. In the next two years, most cars will be equipped with intelligent technology or products. By 2024, the penetration rate of L2 level and above assisted driving for passenger cars will be 55.7%, and it is expected to approach 65% by 2025. In two years, basic intelligence for passenger cars will be popularized.

Ninth, AI technology brings about a completely new transformation to the automotive industry. 2025 is a crucial year for AI to enter the automotive industry, and the application of artificial intelligence will bring new changes to the automotive industry. The automotive industry has had both opportunities and challenges in the past decade. In the first decade, it began the electrification transformation, and in recent years, it has ushered in the intelligent transformation. Nowadays, artificial intelligence has changed the development mode of intelligence, bringing about comprehensive changes. "Automobile+artificial intelligence" is a win-win combination. The automobile provides the largest application scenario for artificial intelligence. At the same time, the automobile will gradually apply artificial intelligence technology in the entire process of research and development, production, supply, sales, service, as well as in all aspects of the vehicle and components. The research and development of intelligent automobiles will also move towards the era of large-scale models.

Tenth, the spillover effect of the automotive industry towards aggregation industries is accelerating. Zhang Yongwei believes that the intelligent automobile industry can easily become an aggregated intelligent industry. In 2025, the development of intelligent vehicles will accelerate, and the trend of "flying up and standing up" will form an aggregated industry spillover, and new quality productivity will also accelerate its landing and amplification in the automotive industry. He further explained that automotive technology is used in the low altitude field, that is, "flying up". The most important factors for low altitude travel are high-density batteries and intelligent control technology. These technologies need to be implemented first in smart cars and further applied to the low altitude economy. Therefore, many car companies have seen the opportunity. Since they can run on the road, they will definitely become participants in the low altitude economy or empower the low altitude industry. Standing up a car, turning its four legs into two legs is like a robot, and turning a car into a deeply intelligent agent that can be used in production and service fields is called the robotics industry. Currently, domestic and foreign car companies are highly concerned about and even deeply involved in the field of robots or humanoid robots, which is the embodied intelligence field. This is an overflow of an intelligent agent from the car, which has become an intelligent car enterprise. These industries are interconnected.