In the early morning of March 2, 2023, Beijing time, Tesla announced the third chapter of the grand plan at the "Investor Day" held by the Austin Super Factory, Texas.

　　To this end, this article will be divided into two parts:

　　● Core content of Tesla press conference

　　● What do you think of this press conference?

　　Tesla's third chapter: build a car every 45 seconds, $10 trillion, and expand production crazily

　　Since it is the third chapter, let's briefly review the first two chapters:

　　On August 2, 2006, Musk first disclosed the first chapter of Tesla in the article "Tesla's Secret Grand Plan (Don't Tell Others)":

　　The first step is to manufacture a model S/X sports car with small production and high price;

　　Step 2: use the money earned from sports cars to build a model with moderate production and low price (Model 3/Model Y);

　　Step 3: Use the money earned to make a model that is widely available and affordable (Model 2);

　　Step 4: Provide solar power products (Powerwall).

　　On July 20, 2016, Musk unveiled the second chapter of Tesla's grand plan:

　　Step 1: create a beautiful solar panel with amazing efficiency and integrated power storage function;

　　Step 2: expand the electric vehicle product line to cover the main market segments;

　　Step 3: Through a large number of vehicle driving data, develop automatic driving which is 10 times safer than manual driving;

　　Step 4: Car sharing, let your car make money for you when not in use.

　　The third grand chapter released by Musk last night, which makes the earth move towards a completely sustainable energy path, seems not like the company's business strategy, but rather like the country's and even the United Nations's vision. Of course, in order to realize this "epic dream vision", Musk also gave five steps:

　　Step 1: Re-power the existing power grid with renewable energy;

　　Step 2: Popularize pure electric vehicles in a large area;

　　Step 3: use heat pump systems in the household, industrial and commercial fields;

　　Step 4: widely apply hydrogen energy in the industrial field (Musk once again stressed that hydrogen should be used as the source of energy supply for industrial production, rather than automobiles);

　　Step 5: sustainable shipping, electric aircraft&ship.

　　As far as the current reality is concerned, everyone's first reaction is that there is no surprise. The Model 2 has not yet been announced. There is no news when the automatic driving will be tested in China. The HW4.0 and 4D radars are also nowhere to be seen. It seems that there is nothing to see at all except the opening of the charging pile to other brands.

　　Among the existing contents, the following three points are the most important for Tesla's entire press conference:

　　First, completely subvert the existing car production mode and build a car every 45 seconds.

　　Under the new production mode, the production time of the new Model Y will be reduced by 40%, and the manufacturing cost will be reduced by 50%. The final result is to build a car every 45 seconds.

　　Second, want to be an investor of the earth? Please give us $10 trillion first.

　　In terms of batteries, Hongtu plans to store 240TWh of energy and 30TWh of renewable power. Musk estimated that it would take about US $10 trillion to achieve this goal. Of course, Tesla will invest in sodium batteries, lithium ore purification technology and no longer use rare earth materials for environmental protection.

　　Third, Tesla will only do three things in the future: expand production, expand production, or expand production.

　　The blueprint is one thing, and the ability to achieve it is another. According to Tesla's plan, the next super factory is located in Monterrey, the capital of New Leon, Mexico, and mainly produces the next generation of automobile products. Musk believes that the chip shortage will end in 2023, and once this matter is cleared up, Tesla will only do three things in the future: expand production, expand production or expand production.

　　Who will show Musk's PPT?

　　After reading the press conference, I believe that many friends are full of disappointment: "Is that it? Isn't Musk just a big cake?" If you change your mind, try to ask who Musk is speaking to?

　　Quite simply, according to the title, this is a conference for investors to listen to. Tesla did not focus on the information and details of automobile products, but will think about the future development and draw a super grand narrative blueprint for them.

　　We all know that in the face of such a world-class company as Tesla, investors are easily divided into two groups - short sellers and long sellers. Only when we truly understand the basic logic of both sides' analysis of Tesla can we really understand why Musk's press conference should be held like this.

　　First, let's look at short sellers.

　　Zhang Jingshu, the managing director of the American Doffman Fund, is the representative of the bulls.

　　The specific logic of his bearish view is as follows:

　　First, there is a serious mismatch between market value and market share.

　　At present, Tesla's market value is more than 600 billion dollars, which is equivalent to that it can take half of the world's auto market. But in fact, Tesla's market share in Europe has dropped from 10% to 5%, and it has stagnated in the United States, and it is also in a dilemma in China.

　　Many people regard Tesla as Apple, but Tesla and Apple are completely different. Apple has been able to produce positive free cash flow since 2000 and does not need to raise funds by diluting shareholders' equity. However, Tesla has suffered most losses since its establishment. Apple only does design and is a standard asset-light operation. Tesla is a typical asset-heavy linear manufacturing business model.

　　Second, Tesla has no lead in battery and automatic driving.

　　Tesla is not a new energy company or energy storage company. You know, the batteries used by Tesla are mainly from Panasonic and Ningde era.

　　Its automatic driving technology is not the most advanced. The best technology is Waymo from Google, followed by Cruise from General Motors, Mobileye from Intel, Aptive from Hyundai, etc. Tesla's automatic driving capability may only be L2.5.

　　Secondly, let's take a look at the bulls.

　　For example, the bulls represented by Cathie Wood, the head of ARK Fund, who is famous as the "bull market queen", generally believe that the three forces driving Tesla forward are scale effect, network effect and Moore's law.

　　Specifically:

　　First of all, the automobile manufacturing industry benefits from the scale effect. No matter which car manufacturer, the more cars they sell, the lower their manufacturing costs will be.

　　Secondly, the Internet industry benefits from the network effect. As long as the user relationship of a network continues to increase, the benefits it can obtain from users will grow exponentially rather than linearly.

　　Finally, the semiconductor industry will benefit from Moore's Law, and Tesla's vehicle cost will be more consistent with the industry law of the semiconductor industry - Moore's Law: the performance of new products will be much better than that of the previous generation, and the cost will be lower than that of the previous generation. The stock capacity is a burden, and will always be subverted by the later technology with lower cost.

　　Tesla, on the other hand, is just the aggregation of the automobile manufacturing industry, the Internet industry and the semiconductor industry. Therefore, scale effect, network effect and Moore's law are the sources of Tesla's strength.

　　In addition to these specific industrial reasons, more people are willing to understand Tesla from a grand perspective.

　　Historian David Christian said: "Any technology that can find a new breakthrough point in the energy or information level may create great commercial value and become a new wealth creator." In the eyes of many, Tesla is the testing ground of energy storage technology in the long history of mankind and the release device of human brain memory. If Tesla's grand blueprint has a substantive breakthrough, What Tesla brings is a world-class energy and information revolution!

　　This is why bullish investors are willing to give Tesla more than 1400 times the P/E ratio. It can be seen that the bulls pay more attention to the magnificent blueprint rather than the specific industrial details.

　　From the perspective of both, it is not difficult to find that from the next few years, small decades, to the next few hundred years, thousands of years, the more optimistic about Tesla, the more it should be.

　　Back to the current time point, in the era of rapid development of new energy vehicles and the increasingly sluggish and even volatile global economy, Tesla is difficult to continue to expand its capacity in the short term if it can save costs in the long term by investing in mining; The introduction of more models means more R&D and production lines, and it is difficult to have money to buy back and integrate upstream and downstream.

　　You know, Tesla's second phase plan is all-inclusive, but these commitments have been fulfilled by 50% at most, and the expansion of product line and the landing of Robotaxi have not been realized.

　　Therefore, if Musk wants to raise more money, the focus of his press conference should meet the full imagination of the bulls about the future.

　　So you see, the focus of the press conference perfectly fits the three logics of the bulls - scale effect, network effect and Moore's law - to build a car every 45 seconds, constantly saving costs, expanding production and reducing prices. Expand production, expand production and expand production, constantly filling the gap in the electric vehicle market.

　　Secondly, Musk's theme, "Let the Earth Go on the Road to Fully Sustainable Energy", or all kinds of robots to build robots, also drew a super pie for many people.

　　To sum up, it is not difficult for us to draw a conclusion that this press conference is not for consumers, but for Musk to reassure those who see more.

　　At this point, we have to admit that Musk is a person who can create stories.

　　Someone summed up his routine.

　　The first is to find a big problem facing mankind, such as global warming, traffic congestion and so on.

　　These problems are so big that we have to fight with them. So it attracted many people's attention. Then, Musk will show you the prospect of using technology to solve it, which is of course far away. But at least it sounds possible.

　　Finally, Musk will set up a company and raise funds, and a commercial miracle will be born. This is how he came from Tesla, Rocket, Super High Speed Rail, and even the OpenAI of ChatGPT (Mask is the co-founder), which has been developed recently.

　　Therefore, don't draw conclusions easily. History has always proved that when he sets a goal and thinks of a method, there are big cakes, routine and originality in the method, and then he can always achieve phased success.

　　So don't be fooled by Musk!