On May 6, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data. In April, it is expected to complete 1.171 million new car sales, down 47.6% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year, almost halving.

　　"The impact of terminal consumer demand on the auto industry may be greater than the supply chain difficulties in the short term." As early as mid-April, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with Fenghuang.com that due to the outbreak of the epidemic Directly and indirectly affected, the terminal market also experienced a relatively large decline.

　　In the past two months, under the double attack of the epidemic and rising raw material prices, car companies struggled to survive the production capacity crisis, but suffered a strong cooling of consumption willingness. Terminal feedback shows that the number of consumers booking cars has decreased significantly. At the same time, consumers have expectations of price cuts, and there may be a delay in demand.

　　Chen Shihua predicts that if there is no obvious policy measures to promote the growth of the auto industry, it will be difficult to achieve the 5% growth target expected at the beginning of the year this year.

　　As the epidemic spreads, what will be the lasting impact of weak consumption? How to boost the auto market?

　　Data slides to the bottom

　　On the first day of May, the new car-making forces successively handed over the April delivery volume answer sheets, which can be summed up in four words: none of them exceeded 10,000.

　　Ji Krypton was the first to announce the results. The delivery volume of 2,137 vehicles is not outstanding, but the 19% month-on-month increase is somewhat gratifying.

　　Horizontally, the deliveries of Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Ideal were 9,002, 5,074, and 4,167, respectively. The month-on-month declines were staggering, 41.6%, 49.2%, and 62.2%.

　　Although Leapmotor and Nezha received 9,087 and 8,813 deliveries respectively, which are not bad, the overall delivery tone for April has almost been finalized.

　　Among them, the ideal car has the largest decline, over 60%. Officials said it was due to supply chain issues affecting new car deliveries.

　　Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Ideal Motors, said that the epidemic caused some suppliers in Shanghai and Kunming, Jiangsu to be unable to supply, and some even stopped work and operations, so after the inventory parts were consumed, they could not be replenished to maintain production.

　　According to public information, the ideal car base is located in Changzhou, Jiangsu, and its parts suppliers are basically in the free shipping area (over 80%), most of which are located in Shanghai, Kunshan, Jiangsu and other places.

　　It is understood that Li Auto is trying to restore production capacity and try to control the delayed delivery within 3 weeks.

　　"There is no way to produce a car without one part." Li Bin, founder of NIO, explained the impact of the supply chain. Affected by the epidemic in Changchun and Hebei, the supply of parts and components has been cut off as early as mid-March. NIO relies on The inventory was barely supported until the beginning of April, but it encountered the epidemic in Shanghai and surrounding areas, and more partners did not care about supply.

　　It is understood that NIO's Hefei plant was shut down for a week in early April, which further increased the pressure on orders. At the same time, the publicity news released by NIO C6, ES6 and ES8 in May also made potential customers of NIO 886 take a wait-and-see attitude.

　　In "Wei Xiaoli", the month-on-month decline of Xiaopeng Motors is relatively small. From the perspective of a 75% year-on-year increase, Xiaopeng Motors' performance is not bad.

　　Some industry analysts believe that this is related to the "geographical advantage" of its production base. The four production bases of Xiaopeng Motors are located in Zhaoqing, Guangzhou and Wuhan, Guangdong, all of which are far away from the free shipping area and are relatively less affected.

　　Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the Automobile Dealers Association of the China Passenger Car Association (CAAC), once predicted that the epidemic may cause a loss of about 20% of China's automobile production.

　　Although there is no specific data for comparison, under the epidemic, the supply and transactions of parts suppliers and product distributors in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta, Jilin, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places have been greatly affected. The loss is self-evident.

　　Who is to blame for the decline in sales?

　　"Beginning in March, various levels of epidemics have occurred in Changchun, Shenyang, Shanghai, Suzhou, Guangzhou and other places. On the one hand, car companies and upstream and downstream enterprises have stopped production and production. On the other hand, related cities have also entered static management. The 4S stores in various shopping malls are closed, which It will have a great impact on auto retailing," said Zhang Xiang, director of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, when talking about April sales.

　　According to the China Automobile Dealers Association's "Investigation on the Inventory Warning Index of China's Auto Dealers", the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in April was 66.4%, an increase of over 10%.

　　This data is the highest since March 2020, which reflects the impact of the epidemic on the auto market.

　　Among the 94 city samples surveyed by the China Automobile Dealers Association, 34 cities have closed dealers due to epidemic prevention and control policies. Among them, more than 60% of the stores closed for more than a week, and almost all dealers in Shanghai were silent.

　　Since Shanghai is an important center of China's auto industry, major domestic auto companies have set up dealerships or experience stores here. According to data, Shanghai will sell 736,700 new cars in 2021, ranking first in China.

　　The one-month-long shutdown here, its chain pressure is difficult not to spread to other regions.

　　It is worth mentioning that the period from March to May is the concentrated release period of new cars. Subject to the epidemic prevention and control, the Beijing Auto Show was postponed, and many new cars were launched online. Due to the lack of offline atmosphere and real experience, the marketing effect was greatly reduced.

　　At the same time, due to the limited freedom of travel, many potential car consumers who are between "possible" and "impossible" also tend to be exhausted in their purchasing enthusiasm.

　　In addition, the successive price increases spontaneously formed by car companies have also made purchasing sentiment increasingly exhausted.

　　The wave of price increases in March has just passed, and a new round has been launched during the May Day period.

　　On Labor Day, Jikr Automobile announced that due to rising raw material prices, the price of the WE version will increase by 5,000 yuan in disguise; the top-end YOU version will also increase the guide price, with an adjustment rate of 18,000 yuan.

　　On the same day, Lynk & Co 01 PHEV, Lynk & Co 05 PHEV, Lynk & Co 06 PHEV, and Lynk & Co 09 PHEV announced price increases at the same time, ranging from 2,000 to 4,000 yuan.

　　The four models of Alpha T653S+, Alpha T H, Alpha S 708S+, and Alpha S 603H are all increased by 5,400 yuan. The Ford Mustang Mach-E is raised by 7,000-22,500 yuan.

　　The two wave of price hikes are both affected by the epidemic and rising materials, but the difference is that in the first wave, "people resisted the pressure of rising prices and waited for the car to queue up", and the second wave is likely to be "there is no car and no one".

　　Liu Yan, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and director of the brand service and exhibition department, said in an interview with the media that the lack of willingness to consume will inevitably lead to a decline in sales.

　　According to survey data, many car consumers who had intended have postponed their purchase plans, and the public's attitude towards purchasing bulk products has become quite rational and cautious.

　　End-consumers lack confidence in the economic upturn. It is no longer a brand that can "coax" well by being smart, engaging in programs, and interacting.

　　Will the auto market be good in May?

　　Some industry analysts believe that the auto industry may face a period of lukewarm demand next.

　　With the progress of the resumption of production and work, from April 19th to 23rd, more than 700 vehicles including Zhiji, Feifan, Roewe, MG and other brands have been rolled off the production line one after another (the production of less than 200 vehicles per day is normal. The daily output can reach more than 1,000 vehicles). The total production cycle of the Roewe RX5 has been increased to 70JPH, and the production capacity has climbed to 38,000 units per month.

　　"Car companies will resume production and work in small batches in May." Zhang Xiang told Fenghuang.com that Tesla has produced a total of 15,000 vehicles based on the production capacity of over 2,000 vehicles per day since it resumed work on April 19. This is 50% of its normal capacity.

　　"A more optimistic forecast is that car companies will return to normal production levels before the epidemic in June. In July, car companies may work overtime to catch up with the lost production capacity in the first half of the year," but in Zhang Xiang's view, this does not mean that It can make up for the sluggish auto market in March and April.

　　The government is exerting efforts from the macro-control level.

　　The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Unleashing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Continued Recovery of Consumption".

　　It mainly provides guidance on specific issues of automobile consumption such as vigorously developing green consumption, fully tapping the consumption potential of counties and townships, breaking barriers that restrict consumption, and optimizing financial services.

　　All regions have also followed up and introduced policies to encourage automobile consumption. For example, Guangzhou announced that consumers can get a subsidy of 10,000 yuan for the purchase of new energy vehicles (8,000 yuan for the old one), and 5,000 yuan for the purchase of fuel vehicles (3,000 yuan for the purchase of fuel vehicles).

　　In addition, Guangzhou plans to add 30,000 fuel vehicles to the license plate this year. If the average price of these 30,000 vehicles is 200,000, there will be sales of nearly 6 billion yuan behind this.

　　Next, will the auto industry experience retaliatory sales growth?

　　"Unlikely", in Zhang Xiang's view, the epidemic has a great impact on the economy, and people's income is decreasing. Most consumers' consumption plans will change with the economic situation, and many people will choose to cancel car consumption.

　　Although governments such as Beijing and Hong Kong have or successively plan to issue consumer coupons to citizens to stimulate consumption, fundamentally, people's consumer confidence and desires have been hit.

　　"Just like a person who didn't eat breakfast on the first day, would not choose to eat two breakfasts on the second day."