Ningde, there is an epidemic.

　　When the news of Ningde's upgrading of epidemic control and control came, the Ningde era, which occupies half of the domestic market share, touched the hearts of the entire new energy vehicle industry.

　　In addition, a screenshot with the words "Ningde Industry and Information Technology Bureau Emergency Notice" circulated on the Internet. The "urgency" between the readings of the sentence is just about directly stating "Ningde ahead, no entry and exit".

　　Although it is difficult to verify the authenticity of the rumors, if the rumors are true, will the Ningde era, which limited the supply of raw materials, still operate normally?

　　So, regarding the impact of the Ningde epidemic, the automobile commune inquired about the Ningde Times, and its official said: There has been an individual epidemic in Ningde recently, and the government has temporarily upgraded the epidemic prevention and control measures. The company attaches great importance to it, and immediately strengthens communication with relevant government departments to coordinate epidemic prevention. At present, in order to maximize the guarantee of market supply, the company strictly adopts grid management measures to ensure the orderly production of the Ningde base.

　　The good news is that the Ningde base in the Ningde era has not stopped production, and has been prepared to maximize market supply. However, the leakage of the house happened to be rainy and rainy, and with the surging of a new round of epidemic, the problem of the demand side of power batteries was exposed again.

　　On April 9, Weilai Automobile stated on its official app that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have successively stopped production and have not yet resumed. Affected by this, Weilai's vehicle production has been suspended.

　　Yes, Weilai, the leading new force, has stopped production, and Li Bin even said bluntly: A car cannot be produced without a single part!

　　The backyard caught fire, full of helplessness. The battery manufacturers who have just experienced the "demon nickel" incident have not yet had time to breathe a sigh of relief, and the export of the industrial chain is facing the risk of being closed.

　　In other words, under the epidemic, how could Weilai be just an example? When car companies no longer ask for orders from battery manufacturers, or the car companies themselves are shutting down production, who will be the extra battery cost in Q2 quarter? to digest?

　　Looking at corporate affairs, Ripple "changed its name" to plan an IPO

　　As far as the current market situation is concerned, it is difficult not to generate some pessimism. But if you look at the installed capacity of power batteries in March in reverse, it is actually much better than the data in February.

　　According to the data of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in March 2022, the domestic power battery installed capacity was 21.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 138.0% and a month-on-month increase of 56.6%, showing the vigorous development of the domestic power battery market.

　　According to the technical route, the ternary batteries were loaded with 8.2GWh in March, accounting for 38.3% of the total loading, an increase of 61.2% year-on-year and 40.5% month-on-month; lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 13.2GWh, accounting for 61.6% of the total loading. %, up 238.8% year-on-year and 69.4% month-on-month.

　　The data will not lie, the situation of six or four points makes lithium iron phosphate take the limelight. And behind this, it can also be seen as the result of the technical route game between power battery companies.

　　The two technical routes of the Ningde era take all, firmly occupying half of the domestic market; BYD, with its blade battery, is on a par with the Ningde era in the lithium iron phosphate battery track, ranking second.

　　Battery manufacturers such as China Innovation Aviation, LG New Energy, and Honeycomb Energy have advantages in ternary batteries; power battery companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy occupy a lot of the lithium iron phosphate battery track. share.

　　However, in addition to the well-known "hands-on-hand", what I want to focus on here is Ripple Energy, which is ranked tenth, and has just completed the share reform and changed its name.

　　Founded in 2017, Ripple Energy is a relatively "young" power battery supplier. Its main products include square aluminum shell ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries of VDA and MEB standard sizes. And it is worth mentioning that Ripple Energy has a very strong background.

　　According to the company's investigation, Tsingshan Holdings, the protagonist of the "demon nickel" incident, is holding nearly 90% of the shares of Ripple Energy through direct and indirect means. As the helm of Tsingshan Holdings, "nickel king" Xiang Guangda holds a 53% stake in Ripple Energy.

　　On April 7, Ruipu Energy underwent an industrial and commercial change, and the company changed its name to Ruipu Lanjun Energy Co., Ltd. Interestingly, both Ruipu Energy and Lanjun New Energy are subsidiaries of Tsingshan. Lanjun New Energy's battery products mainly focus on ternary high nickel and cobalt-free direction, which can form a good complementary effect with Ruipu Energy.

　　After completing the share change and changing its name, Ripland's strength is undoubtedly increasing. And just last week, Ripple Energy also reported that it was listed in Hong Kong as early as this year, and is considering raising funds before the listing.

　　According to people familiar with the matter, Ruipu Energy is raising about 3 billion yuan from new and existing investors to seek a 30 billion yuan ($4.7 billion) valuation. After the completion of this fundraising, Ruipu Energy may go to Hong Kong for an initial public offering (IPO).

　　Looking at the industrial chain, the downstream crisis suddenly appeared

　　On the one hand, the influx of capital has provided a guarantee for the technological innovation and capacity expansion of power battery companies. But on the other hand, how can the healthy operation of the entire industry chain be achieved only by relying on capital.

　　Under the background of the outbreak of the epidemic at this time, the power battery industry chain ushered in a difficult "big test".

　　The first is the problem of "overcapacity".

　　At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum in 2022, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that China's power battery production capacity will reach 3,000GWh in 2025, while battery shipments are expected to be around 1,200GWh in 2025. There will be significant excess capacity.

　　Looking at the present, in the past March, the output of domestic power batteries totaled 39.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 247.3% and a month-on-month increase of 23.3%. And whether it is a weak ternary battery or a lithium iron phosphate battery that is widely sought after by car companies, it has achieved a substantial increase in production.

　　Under such circumstances, power battery companies still have to "cry": affected by the rise in raw materials, the price of batteries will increase. Although this is the case, the question now is, when the supply of power batteries exceeds demand, how can the price still rise?

　　To be fair, the most basic relationship in the market is the relationship between supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand, the price of power batteries will be regulated by the market. And the second problem, said to be a crisis in the downstream of the industrial chain, can actually be seen as a problem on the demand side of power batteries.

　　As far as the current situation is concerned, the trend of overcapacity is gradually emerging, although the cost of power batteries has also risen due to rising raw material prices. But on the other hand, the demand of car companies may also become weak due to the epidemic.

　　Taking Weilai as an example, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to get its parts and components together. As a last resort, it has to stop the production of the whole vehicle, and it is difficult to deliver the whole vehicle. Will there be more orders from battery manufacturers?

　　For car companies, the uncertainty of vehicle production in Q2 quarter has increased sharply due to the epidemic. And it needs to be clear that, affected by the "demon nickel" incident, the prices of various upstream raw materials have increased significantly, and the cost of this batch of batteries in the Q2 quarter is much higher.

　　For consumers, car purchases this quarter not only have to accept the "official price increase", but also respond to uncertainties brought about by the epidemic at any time, such as difficult delivery for a long time.

　　Under such a logical deduction, if consumers' desire to buy a car is not very strong, and the corresponding emotions are fed back to the industrial chain of car companies and power batteries, will there be more battery orders and vehicle loading?

　　It is not difficult to find that the power battery companies at this time seem to be in a weak state - not only need to obey the wishes of upstream raw material suppliers, but also take care of the emotions of major car companies.

　　However, they were angry at both ends, but they did not dare to relax, for fear of being robbed of this hard-won market share by other friends.

　　But from another perspective, who would miss the time when power batteries "kidnapped" car companies and "kidnapped" the entire industry?

　　Market rules, car companies, and even upstream raw material suppliers are all putting pressure on battery manufacturers. It's just that this kind of intentional or unintentional approach can result in an unknown situation, or it may spawn another powerful group.

　　But what is certain is that the crisis encountered by the power battery companies this time will not end so easily; even those conflicts that have been backlogged for a long time are imminent.