Lead: Some people leave the market with clearance, and some people enter the market with a lot of money.

　　In the past year, the new energy vehicle sector has gained momentum, becoming a well-deserved top-tier sector in the secondary market in 2021.

　　Oriental Wealth data shows that the new energy vehicle index has continued the growth trend of 31.17% in 2020. As of December 31, 2021, it will rise again by 39.61% in 2021.

　　Under the turmoil of capital, investors in new energy vehicle stocks have made a lot of money. From 2020 to 2021, Fang Heng holds a number of new energy vehicle stocks such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, King Long Motors and BAIC Blue Valley. At one time, the profit exceeded 500,000 yuan (with a principal of 6 million yuan).

　　In 2021, most investors like Fang Heng who have invested heavily in new energy vehicles will become winners. But entering 2022, the enthusiasm of former fans begins to dissipate.

　　In fact, at the end of 2021, Fang Heng has already begun to change his investment strategy, investing more of his chips in lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other sectors. "It is very likely that new energy vehicle stocks will continue to rise in 2022, but due to the large gains before, the upward momentum in 2022 will relatively slow down."

　　In fact, it is not just Fang Heng who reduced his holdings of new energy vehicle stocks. The Future Auto Daily interviewed many investors and found that some people only kept the bottom position of new energy vehicle stocks and switched to the Yuan universe sector, betting that it would become the next "Bitcoin." ; Some people have moved to the metal material sector. In the context of rising prices of lithium battery raw materials, these players believe that upstream metals may have a greater opportunity for phased rises.

　　It seems that overnight, the new energy vehicle stocks suddenly "not fragrant"?

　　"The stock prices of new forces will not soar to the sky again"

　　As an old stock investor with more than 5 years of experience in stock trading, Qian Chen prefers to call himself a "bubble" person. Today, Qian Chen has sold all the new energy vehicle stocks in his hands and moved to the fields of Metaverse and artificial intelligence.

　　"The stories that Meta Universe and artificial intelligence tell the capital market this year are far more exciting than new energy vehicles." Qian Chen's credo is, "stock speculation is speculation expectations", which field can bring more excitement and excitement to the capital market Story, you can get a more generous return on capital, even if these returns are bubbles.

　　New energy vehicles have experienced the best period. Starting from mid-2020, stock prices have taken off collectively. The most exaggerated stocks have increased by more than 10 times in half a year. However, in Qian Chen’s view, even if new energy vehicles are the future development trend, such high valuations at the initial stage can only be explained as the capital market has transformed the expectations of new energy vehicles in the next few years or even more than ten years in advance. For the current bubble. It is difficult for him to continue to hold the new energy sector in the new year.

　　The most intuitive manifestation is that the capital market has become a little numb to the new trends of new energy vehicle companies. What impressed Qian Chen was that on November 1, 2021, the delivery data released by Weilai Automobile showed that Weilai’s October delivery exceeded 10,000 for the first time. This is a big breakthrough for NIO, and the capital market is bound to have a strong reaction. To Qian Chen's surprise, as of the close of trading on November 1, Weilai's share price rose only 3.63%.

　　"For the capital market, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles is not a good thing." Qian Chen analyzed from the perspective of a unique "capital bubble". "The new energy automobile industry has gradually matured and profitability has become traditional. The once-hot expectations have gradually receded. The stock prices of new car manufacturers will not skyrocket anymore."

　　Compared with the radical Qian Chen, Yu Qiao's investment logic is relatively conservative. Before the end of the year, Yu Qiao only retained the basic disks of Foton Motor and BAIC Blue Valley, and transferred funds to the photovoltaic and metal materials track. In Yu Qiao's view, new energy vehicle stocks "can be held for a long time, but if it is launched in 2022, it is not necessary."

　　Source: Photo courtesy of the respondent

　　Because, compared with 2021, investment opportunities for new energy vehicles in 2022 are much more difficult. "At the end of 2020, the relevant agencies expect the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 to be 2 million, but the actual demand has reached 3.4 million (China Automobile Association forecast)." Sales of energy vehicles and stock prices have risen in tandem.

　　By 2022, the industry expects that the chip shortage will be alleviated, and major auto companies are aggressively expanding their production capacity, making the new energy automobile industry a more prosperous battle in 2022. "The market expectation is relatively sufficient, and the degree of influence of external factors on the stock price is reduced, so the growth of the stock price of auto companies needs more of its own performance to support." Yu Qiao analyzed the Future Auto Daily.

　　However, the aforementioned investors do not deny that new energy vehicles are still their focus in the stock market.

　　"In 2022, there may be divisions within the new energy. Some high-quality stocks that can truly achieve performance and have a leading position may usher in better performance opportunities, and some stocks with speculation concepts may not escape the decline." Some investors analyzed. , "Currently, the production capacity of lithium batteries is insufficient, the supply exceeds demand, and the development of alternative technologies is slow. The industry will continue to develop at a high speed in the next few years."

　　New energy vehicles are still a long-term track

　　Some people made a pre-judgment and left the market, while others entered with enthusiasm and a lot of money.

　　Source: pexels

　　"Although it is not the time to buy the bottom, if you don't get on the bus now, the'tickets' will be more expensive in the future." Moxi firmly believes that new energy vehicles will be a long slope and thick snow track. On December 16, 2021, Moxi purchased 300 shares of BYD at a price of 283 yuan per share (with an investment of 84,900 yuan). On December 23, he again purchased 1,000 shares of Changan Automobile at a price of 16.03 yuan per share. Stock (invest 16,000 yuan).

　　As the owner of BYD Tang and also a loyal supporter of BYD, Mo Xi firmly believes that BYD’s stock price will reproduce the miracle of the Ningde era. "BYD started early in the new energy field and has a first-mover advantage. In the future, as the new energy market improves, BYD's advantages will be further expanded."

　　From various signs, the new energy vehicle market in 2022 has unlimited potential.

　　On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries jointly issued a notice on improving the fiscal subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. The notice shows that the 2022 new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will end on December 31, 2022, after which the license will no longer be subsidized. At the same time, the current technical indicators related to the purchase subsidy will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be liberalized from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles to realize the subsidy throughout the whole year of 2022.

　　Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Travel Association, believes that under the stimulus of policies, consumers will have a strong desire to buy new energy vehicles in 2022. "The high probability of car buying will occur at the end of 2022." At the same time, Cui Dongshu predicts that the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to exceed 6 million, with a penetration rate of about 22%.

　　CICC also issued a research report stating that it is firmly optimistic about the new energy vehicle market in 2022.

　　CICC expects that the demand in the automotive industry will grow steadily in 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly, the advancement of intelligence will accelerate, and the industrial transformation has arrived. Under the background of major changes, car companies and even the industry chain are facing subversion and reshaping. Rapidly iterative technology and product innovation is an important starting point and the core driving force for the outbreak of car companies’ performance valuation. It is recommended to continue to dig into the structural growth competition. Dao and individual stock opportunities.

　　"The (new energy vehicle) market still has a lot of growth." Moxi believes that the market for new energy vehicles has stabilized, and the remaining problems are mainly concentrated on the transaction level. "The monthly sales release and the release phase of the quarterly financial report should be the most appropriate (transaction) time point (for short-term investors)."

　　(This article does not constitute investment advice. In order to protect the privacy of the interviewees, some of the characters in the article are pseudonyms)