With the blessing of intelligent network connection, the electric development of automobiles is driven by many forces. The current situation changes, the concept changes, and hundreds of thousands of people compete, but it is not a chaotic battle.

　　On December 14, the "2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit" held in Yibin, Sichuan, discussed two things roughly: What is our current situation? What will we face in the coming year?

　　The turning point is coming, and the fight is more intense

　　In January this year, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the passenger car market was only 5.1%. In September, the ratio was as high as 15.7%. The data for October has just come out and it has exceeded 17%.

　　What does it mean if a new category has a penetration rate of 16% or 17% in the automotive industry?

　　Weimar Automobile Group Vice President of Strategic Operations Mei Songlin said that if the penetration rate of new products reaches 16%, this is an inflection point. Once the inflection point is surpassed, China's new energy automobile industry will enter an explosive period.

　　"According to the innovation diffusion theory, a new product category can be divided into five stages: product development, introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. It can be clearly seen that in the past two years, there have been A large number of new brands that consumers can afford and use comfortably, including many new categories and new brands, have entered the market, boosting the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles to rise sharply."

　　But the elimination of market competition will be more severe.

　　Industry research expert Bai Ling of the Chongqing Changan Product Planning Department said that the number of brands has shown that since 2019, the number of brands has been decreasing year by year, and the proportion of new brands has also been declining year by year. The proportion of brands with monthly sales below 1,000 and dying brands is increasing year by year.

　　What does this mean?

　　"It turns out that brands that are in the middle of the market are performing worse and worse, and are gradually being marginalized or even eliminated. From the performance of corporate concentration data, we can see that due to market abnormalities in 2021, the supply of TOP20 companies will decline to a certain extent, and the market will be concentrated. Bai Ling believes that if the supply increases next year, the market share that is robbed by late companies this year may be seized by leading companies again. The elimination of market competition will intensify next year.

　　Bai Ling said that if it corresponds to the market competition pattern, the mainstream products of the joint venture will bear greater competitive pressure due to the upward and downward pressure from downstream independent brands and upstream luxury brands at the same time.

　　In her view, in the compact car market, there are already joint venture brands in the range of 80,000 to 100,000 that have begun to explore downwards, while the relatively excellent products of independent brands, such as MG and Emgrand, have begun to explore upwards. Some joint venture products began to compete against each other. The range below 80,000 may be the range in which the price of traditional fuel models will drop in the future. There will also be some self-owned brand electrification products in the 80,000-100,000 range in the future, and competition in this range will be more intense in 2022. In the competitive landscape of the compact SUV market, the competition in the range of 100,000 to 150,000 is the most intense. Mainly self-owned products and products explored by joint ventures, there will also be companies with a relatively fast electrification layout that will put some electrified upgrade products in it to consolidate the market price segment.

　　Sales in 2022 or "low in the front and high in the back"

　　"Low in the front and high in the back" is a descriptive forecast of the auto market sales in 2022 by Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

　　According to this forecast, China’s total automobile sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, of which passenger vehicle sales will be 23 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, commercial vehicles will be 4.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and new energy vehicle sales will be 500. Million, a year-on-year increase of 47%.

　　Talking about the favorable factors for the growth of the automobile market in 2022, Chen Shihua said that GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%, which is the most basic guarantee for the growth of the automobile industry. At the same time, macroeconomics and macroeconomic policies will also benefit the development of the auto industry.

　　In terms of unfavorable factors, the instability of the international epidemic situation is still the biggest risk. In addition, internal and external factors such as rising commodity prices, an aging population, debt risks in the real estate market, and Sino-US relations will affect the continued low-speed growth after economic growth. At the same time, certain fluctuations will not be ruled out.

　　Even so, the future potential of the auto market is still very large. It is estimated that China's auto market will sell 30 million vehicles in 2025.

　　Chen Shihua said that the market of next year, the first half of the year and the second half of the year may undergo major changes. Our market this year is "high before and low", and next year the market is estimated to be "low before and high". On the one hand, it is affected by cardinal factors. In addition, the pressure on chips in the first half of the year is definitely greater than in the second half, and the blue-label light truck policy will also have an impact on the market. "The first half of next year may not be easy, but growth will resume in the second half of the year."

　　Regarding the impact of chips on car sales, Lin Huaibin, head of light vehicle sales forecast in China at IHS Markit, has a slightly pessimistic and conservative forecast.

　　"The degree of chip recovery is still uncertain. In the end, what percentage of the delivered cars have incomplete chips." In Lin Huaibin's view, given that the number of chips used in new energy bicycles may be several times that of traditional fuel vehicles, such as in 2022 The development trend of new energy vehicles is as optimistic as the forecast (up to 5 million), which will have an additional impact on the shortage of chip supply.

　　"The issue of chip supply must be placed in a geopolitical perspective. The analysis of our company's chip experts believes that the impact of chip supply will last until at least 2024."

　　Out of the forecast of chip supply, Lin Huaibin believes that part of the cumulative sales in 2021 and 2022 will be released in 2023 and 2024.

　　Bai Ling's views on the recovery of chip supply are similar to those of Lin Huaibin.

　　She said that although there was a positive month-on-month growth in September, October, and November this year, there is still a relatively large gap in social inventory, and there will continue to be a shortage of chips next year. Although chip makers are already expanding their production capacity, the squeezed orders from chip makers have been scheduled for one or two years, and the release of production capacity will not be very fast. Pre-judged, a complete solution may be completed by 2023 or even longer.

　　Regarding car sales in 2022, she added that since the entire market is in a state of restraint this year, there may be a small increase in the market in 2021 in 2022, and luxury brands will be more obvious.

　　Chen Liran, director of forecast research at the China Automotive Strategic Development Research Center of Tianjin University, believes that the development trend of the automobile industry is slowing down, and its sales forecast for 2022 is 25.57 million vehicles.

　　"After the epidemic, the auto industry is the first industry to recover, and it has greatly developed the consumer's auto consumption potential. Such consumption growth will also bring about a slowdown in the consumption growth trend in the later period," Chen Liran said, due to the "dual carbon" goal boosted , New energy vehicles have attracted great attention from consumers, so "a more optimistic estimate is about 4.5 million vehicles."

　　"Dumbbell type" to "olive type" transition

　　"Models priced at more than 200,000 yuan are selling well, and low-end models are also selling well, and the intermediate model market is shrinking." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, summarized the characteristics of the automotive consumer market this year.

　　He summarized the reason as that limited new energy resources definitely tend to satisfy higher models. At the same time, most new energy brands that have just entered the market will not choose the most competitive market, but mostly enter the high-end or low-end market. But this law is short-term, and the market is changing, changing from a dumbbell shape to a spindle shape or an olive shape.

　　Mei Songlin also expressed the same view.

　　"Before June of this year, the mid-end market was basically the lowest, and the two ends were large, but it would be inaccurate to say that in the second half of this year. The market share is higher, and the future definition is the A-class market, A-class SUVs, A-class cars, and so on."

　　"If a new category wants to become the mainstream of the market, it must be in the mid-range to win the world. This is the big head." Mei Songlin said that local brands will usher in opportunities. If the pure electric market is divided into two categories: local and international Brands, the growth rate has exceeded 100%, but the growth rate of local brands has more than doubled. In the first 10 months of this year, the market share of local brands in pure electric vehicles has increased from 77% last year to 82% this year, which is already very high. , But it will be further improved.

　　There are hidden worries about the trend of “strong on both sides and weak in the middle” in the new energy market.

　　Li Bingyang, director of the market data office of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., said that in the fuel vehicle market, the A-class car market has always been the main consumer product, and the proportion of personal consumption is basically 91%, but the new energy vehicle market is in the A00 level, 95% are Personal consumption, while in the A-level market, this data is only 56%. This group of people still do not have enough trust in the purchase cost and new energy vehicles. If the new energy vehicle market wants to make a qualitative leap in the future, we believe that it is necessary to occupy the main consumer position in the A-class car market.

　　Li Bingyang summed up the "four highs" characteristics of the new energy market, that is, a high proportion of redemption, a high proportion of women, a high proportion of luxury brands, and a high proportion of younger users. In terms of consumption upgrade, the replacement ratio of 3-6 tier cities is rising rapidly. In terms of policies, due to the increased policy friendliness of the auto industry, it will inject strong impetus into the high-end consumer demand in the auto market next year.

　　Conclusion:

　　The instability of the epidemic, the uncertainty of chip supply, the rising prices of bulk materials, the aging of the population, the debt crisis in the real estate market, the factors of Sino-US relations, and the downward pressure on the economy.

　　The above-mentioned problems in 2021, 2022 still cannot escape.

　　In addition, new brands that dream of making cars are still coming forward.

　　The 2022 auto market is doomed to be cruel.