The latest released data shows that in 2022, the US trade deficit reached a historical record, increasing to nearly $1 trillion, marking the third consecutive year of reaching a new historical high. The main reasons for this are rising inflation, soaring oil prices, and strong demand for imported goods.

　　At the same time, the data released by the United States Department of Commerce on February 7 showed that the bilateral trade volume between the US and China set a new record in 2022.

　　In 2022, Americans who have recovered from the epidemic will continue to "buy and buy", and the annual data can also reflect the strong demand of American consumers for consumer goods such as new cars and mobile phones. Can this "fierce import" situation continue in 2023?

　　Record breaking trade volume between the United States and China last year

　　On the 7th local time, the United States Department of Commerce released data showing that the US trade deficit in 2022 was $948.1 billion, which was $103 billion more than the trade deficit in 2021, up 12.2% year on year. Just six years ago, the deficit was only half.

　　Overall, in 2022, US trade exports increased by 17.7% compared to the previous year to $3.01 trillion, while imports increased by 16.3% to $3.96 trillion. Among them, the trade surplus in goods increased by 9.3% to $1.19 trillion, while the trade surplus in services decreased by 0.6% to $243.7 billion.

　　From a national perspective, the trade deficit between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico, Canada, Germany, Japan, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia has expanded. Among them, the trade deficit between China and the United States increased from $353.5 billion to a record high of $382.9 billion.

　　It is worth noting that the bilateral trade volume between the United States and China also set a new record in 2022. Experts believe that the complementarity of the trade structure between China and the United States determines that China remains an irreplaceable trading partner of the United States.

　　According to the data of the United States Department of Commerce, in 2022, the total merchandise trade between the US and China will increase to 690.6 billion US dollars, exceeding the record in 2018. At the same time, the US merchandise trade deficit with China will expand by 8%, reaching 382.9 billion US dollars, only second to the highest record of 419.4 billion US dollars in 2018.

　　Bloomberg reported on the 8th that the release of this data coincides with a low point in China US relations. The report states that the US government is restricting China's access to semiconductor technology and attempting to gather allies to jointly promote this matter; Washington is also trying to reduce its dependence on Chinese goods and encourage Western companies to invest in what United States Secretary of the Treasury Yellen calls "reliable trading partners".

　　This indicates that consumers have their own ideas, "Bloomberg quoted trade expert William Reinsch as saying." Despite the efforts of the two governments to get rid of each other, there has not been much change in the macro relationship. "At the market level, we still have a lot of business exchanges.

　　Trade analyst Nick Marlow said, "The US government is working to reduce its dependence on China in its supply chain, but ultimately, most companies are more concerned with delivering products to consumers on time and with their own operations

　　Zhang Molan, deputy director and researcher of the U.S. - European Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said on the 8th that the complementarity of the trade structure between China and the United States is difficult to change in the short term, with a high degree of interdependence. China is still irreplaceable in some product lines. The price advantage of Chinese products is prominent. In the current situation where American consumers choose cost-effective products to hedge against high inflation, the United States still needs to seek to expand the scale of imports to China.

　　Zhang Molan stated that since the trade war, the United States has attempted to contain China's development through a "small courtyard high wall" strategy, but this has also caused a backlash against its own trade, exacerbated the trade deficit between China and the United States, and played a counterproductive role in improving the overall trade structure of the United States.

　　Can the US import boom continue in 2023?

　　However, we should also note that towards the end of 2022, both US imports and exports have weakened, indicating a weak outlook for both domestic and foreign economies.

　　However, the latest December 2022 data shows a rebound in US imports. Last December, the US trade deficit in goods and services increased by 10.5% month on month to $67.4 billion, exports decreased by 0.9% month on month to $250.2 billion, and imports increased by 1.3% month on month to $317.6 billion.

　　Looking at the sub items, the import of goods increased by 1.8% to $258.8 billion, reflecting the boost from consumer goods in the United States. In addition to mobile phones, imports of other household goods also increased. Meanwhile, imports of motor vehicles, components, and engines increased by $2.9 billion that month.

　　In terms of exports, industrial supplies and materials exports decreased by $3.1 billion in December 2022, while crude oil exports decreased by $800 million. Exports of other petroleum products have also decreased.

　　Economists believe that the decline in imports and exports of industrial goods and materials confirms the recent weakness of the manufacturing industry, and the decline in production and business confidence highlights this. As the Federal Reserve fights inflation by raising interest rates and shifting spending from goods to services, these phenomena have weakened the manufacturing industry.

　　At the same time, the appreciation of the US dollar also makes Made in USA made goods expensive in the international market. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy by global central banks is also eroding foreign demand.

　　The slowdown in overseas growth may continue to drag down demand for US exports, "said Shannon Seery, an economist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York

　　Andrew Hunter, a senior US economist at Capital Economics, said in a report to clients, "The data indicates that domestic and international demand is still sluggish

　　Economists predict that the trade deficit will slightly shrink in the coming years, but due to fundamental changes in the US and global economy that are difficult to reverse, the trade deficit may continue to expand and persist.

　　From the perspective of global economy, Wang Yong, professor of the School of International Relations of Peking University and director of the International Political and Economic Research Center, said that East Asia's economy will lead the way, thus playing a greater role in promoting global economic recovery. In this sense, the economic growth of East Asia and China will also drive imports from the United States.

　　Wang Yong said that the trade volume of the United States in the third and fourth quarters of this year will more clearly reflect the US economy and consumption situation. On the one hand, the United States is experiencing a peak holiday consumption season, and on the other hand, it is also closely related to the economic growth, income level, and employment situation at that time.

　　Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook Report, which raised the global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 2.9% in 2023 (2.7% in October 2022), and predicted the global GDP growth of 3.1% (3.2%) in 2024. The GDP growth rate of the United States will reach 1.4% (1.0%) and 1.0% (1.2%) this year and next; The GDP of the Eurozone will grow by 0.7% (0.5%) and 1.6% (1.8%); The expected GDP growth in the UK is -0.6% (0.3%) and 0.9% (0.6%); China's GDP growth rate will reach 5.2% (4.4%) and 4.5% (4.5%).