After nearly four years in the industry, if you want to ask which car company you have the most inexplicable feelings for? I will choose NIO without hesitation.

　　The reason is very simple.

　　No matter how much bias, questioning, or even criticism this new force has experienced in the past nine years, looking back at the decades of development of the Chinese automotive industry, it is the only one that can be referenced without any template. Under the leadership of Li Bin, Wei Lai undoubtedly waded out a path of his own.

　　But the depth of love, the urgency of responsibility.

　　As a witness, for its other dimension of emotions, it is more like: "Hate iron cannot be made into steel, although it can be done better, it always lacks breath." Many times, I feel that certain decisions made by NIO often appear slightly abrupt and idealistic.

　　As the external environment continues to become increasingly harsh and cruel, this new force seems to be living in a utopia, unable to perceive and respond well, lacking strong execution and wolf like thinking.

　　Of course, in the eyes of some readers, the above views may be slightly emotional. But now is the most genuine idea in my heart, especially after attending a media communication meeting at NIO this week.

　　Do you insist on it now

　　In fact, many people have already heard about the main content of the media communication meeting mentioned at the beginning of the article. In summary, it is the release of NOP+subscription fees for advanced assisted driving, as well as the further decline of free battery exchange benefits.

　　Specifically, according to official news from NIO, Enhanced Navigation Assistance NOP+will be officially launched and subscribed on July 1st, supporting monthly subscriptions at a price of 380 yuan per month.

　　The first owner who collects the car or pays a deposit to purchase ET7, ES7, EC7, and ET5 models before May 31, 2023, as well as the first owner who pays a deposit to purchase a new ES8 model before July 31, 2023, can obtain a 2-year NOP+free use right.

　　At the same time, starting from June 1, 2023, the first owners of NIO ET7, ES7, EC7, and ET5 models will pay a deposit to purchase, and the charging station will be adjusted to pay for installation. The number of free battery changes per month will be uniformly adjusted to 4.

　　Users who pay a deposit to purchase the above model before May 31, 2023, and who pay a deposit to purchase the new ES8 model before July 31, 2023, will have the same rights as the first owner, and will still enjoy 4 or 6 free battery exchanges per month based on whether to install a free charging station.

　　At this point, let's break down the items one by one.

　　Firstly, from the perspective of a virtuous cycle and development in the industry, it is not inappropriate to enhance the implementation of monthly subscription for navigation assisted NOP+. After all, in various industries, it is natural for consumers to pay extra for certain additional advanced features.

　　The difference in the automotive industry is that, whether recognized or not, for some users, advanced assisted driving is still not a must-have at this stage. Before NIO, there were not no new power friends who made similar attempts, but in the end, they all ended up hastily, and on the contrary, they had to provide free software as standard.

　　More generally speaking, the popularization of the "subscription system" is indeed an unwavering direction. But now, is it the first to ensure the increase in popularity and make more car owners experience it? Or continue to be the so-called 'trailblazer', which may result in lower loading rates than expected? The dilemma has always been there.

　　The protagonist of today's article clearly chose the latter approach. And next, no one can guarantee the outcome of this new force.

　　In contrast, continuing to stand from the perspective of enterprise development, reducing the number of free battery exchanges until all on demand fees are ultimately paid, is also an undeniable and necessary path.

　　After all, self funded subsidies are ultimately unsustainable.

　　Looking back on the past, no one in the Chinese car market, except NIO, has consistently provided such benefits to their own users. And the number of free battery changes per month has increased from 6 to 4, which is still "sufficient" for most car owners and can basically cover their travel needs.

　　However, after rough calculation, according to NIO's own pricing system, the decline of multiple rights and interests mentioned above has resulted in potential consumers who purchase cars after June 1st directly losing up to nearly 30000 yuan, and can even be understood as a "price increase" in disguised form.

　　Of course, as soon as this news is released, it still has the effect of "forcing orders" for potential car owners who are still hesitant. However, for more potential users who are still hesitant, it is not ruled out that some people are "persuaded to quit".

　　Follow the trend and look deeper.

　　Personally, from a calm and objective perspective, I can still understand the starting point of NIO's actions and the "difficulties". Just like the subtitle of this paragraph, the larger question focuses on: Is the timing of release appropriate?

　　As is well known, in this year's Chinese car market, with the crazy attacks of Tesla and BYD, the "price war" is still becoming increasingly fierce, with no intention of ending. And all car companies, active or passive, can do is participate and compete for meat in the thorny jungle.

　　Looking at NIO, although "going against the trend" may seem full of courage and confidence, the results it brings are good or bad. At this moment, I believe no one can provide a sure answer, especially in China's car market, which is still in such a volatile and cruel situation.

　　In the future, battery swapping will definitely be fully charged, it's just a matter of time. The subscription mode for intelligent driving software also requires someone to start

　　The above paragraph is from Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO, who was interviewed during this week's media communication meeting. The truth is true, but I still want to refute it: "Do you have to wait now? Can't you wait any longer? Wait for a more clear trend node

　　Indeed, NIO has a certain ability to resist risks, but it is not yet strong enough to withstand the entire market.

　　You can't break your promise anymore

　　At this moment, it is still clear to remember that in the interview session after NIO Day 2022, Li Bin had made expectations for the sales target for 2023.

　　Although there is still a distance to surpass Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Audi, I personally have confidence in surpassing Lexus. In his opinion, "With the complete switching of all 8 products on the NT2 platform and the start of delivery one by one, NIO will demonstrate strong enough competitiveness

　　The problem is that as the "only child" of Japanese luxury brands, Lexus is already showing signs of decline in the Chinese car market. After reaching a historic high of over 220000 vehicles in 2021, its total volume decreased by 16% in 2022. Since entering 2023, terminal performance has further declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 19% in full brand sales in February.

　　In other words, surpassing the gradually declining Lexus does not provide NIO with enough valuable evidence to dispel long-standing biases, doubts, and even criticisms. This new force clearly needs to produce a stronger transcript for car manufacturing.

　　Based on the above background, on March 1, Beijing time, during a conference call after the 2022 annual financial report release, Li Bin recently stated, "The specific sales target of NIO in 2023 is to double year-on-year to 245000 vehicles, and it can achieve breakeven in the fourth quarter of this year

　　In the past quarter, this new force only delivered 31000 new vehicles, with an average monthly delivery of just over 10000 vehicles. There is still a gap of over 210000 vehicles from 245000 vehicles. On average, nearly 24000 vehicles are needed per month for the remaining 9 months to meet the target set by Li Bin.

　　Coincidentally, during this week's media communication meeting, the latter once again emphasized: "NIO is about to enter the peak sales season. In the next four months, it will deliver five new cars on the NT2.0 platform, including ES8 and EC7. By the end of July, a product matrix of eight products for sale will be formed, covering 80% of the high-end market's user needs

　　After further understanding, it was learned that in the plan of this new force, the ET5 series and ES6 will contribute a total of 20000 vehicles per month; ET7, ES7, and ES8 will contribute a total of 8-1000 vehicles per month; EC7 and EC6 will contribute a total of 20-4000 vehicles per month, supporting the monthly sales target of up to 30000 vehicles and the annual sales target of doubling year-on-year.

　　However, even so, it is still necessary to point out that the current ET5 terminal performance is far from meeting expectations, and the decline in ET7 and ES7 order reserves is insufficient.

　　Therefore, the all-new ES6, which is about to enter the Shanghai Auto Show next week, undoubtedly shoulders the "hope of the entire village" of this new force. As an observer, I hope that since the rights have declined, the price of this product can be relatively more sincere.

　　After all, if you want to shake off the hat of "Wei 10000", you really can't afford to lose. As a reference for the direct competitor Ideal L7, the retail volume in March has exceeded 7000 units.

　　Our VAU for the second quarter is to sell more cars. If there is no improvement and we still have over 10000 cars per month, then Lihong and I should go find a job

　　Similarly, during the exclusive interview session of this week's media communication meeting, Li Bin used a slightly sarcastic tone to directly drag out the most important matter at NIO's moment.

　　Undoubtedly, the enormous pressure and challenges lie there, but there is no easy way to build a car. As a helmsman, one still needs to persevere and overcome them. Otherwise, no one could predict whether the 'darkest moment' would happen again.

　　In short, for NIO, whether its annual sales have doubled year-on-year or its year-end breakeven, as stated in the subtitle of this paragraph, "we can't go back on our word

　　For a long time, the outside world has always been willing to use the phrase "jumping after squatting" to describe this new force. It is cute, deep, and responsible. Personally, I still want to remind myself, "squatting alone is not enough

　　Of course, don't be too optimistic about the present and future.