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Effective demand has yet to release the overall pressure of the automotive industry in the first quarter

Publish Date: 2023.04.12

Although automobile production and sales showed significant growth in March, the overall pressure in the first quarter was on. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said, "On the whole, the domestic effective demand of the automobile market has not been fully released."

  

  Yesterday (April 11th), the China Automobile Association released data showing that in March, domestic automobile production and sales completed 2.584 million and 2.451 million units, respectively, with a month on month increase of 27.2% and 24%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and 9.7%, respectively; From January to March, the production and sales of automobiles completed 6.21 million and 6.076 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and 6.7%, respectively.

  

  有效需求尚待释放 一季度汽车行业整体承压

  

  Chen Shihua's analysis suggests that in the first quarter, the automotive industry entered a period of promotional policy switching, with the withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicle purchase tax incentives and the end of subsidies for new energy vehicles, which led to early consumption at the end of last year. The related follow-up policies are still unclear. In addition, the price reduction of new energy at the beginning of the year and the promotion wave since March have also caused fluctuations in the end market, and the overall economic operation of the automotive industry is facing significant pressure.

  

  Specifically, in terms of passenger cars, the production and sales in March were 2.149 million and 2.017 million, respectively, with a month on month increase of 25.3% and 22%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% and 8.2%, respectively. Among them, the domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles reached 1.169 million units, a decrease of 128000 units compared to the same period last year, a month on month increase of 21.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%.

  

  Focusing on the first quarter, passenger cars have not yet escaped the downward trend, with production and sales completing 5.262 million and 5.138 million units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and 7.3%. Among the main types of passenger cars, MPV sales showed a slight increase compared to the same period last year, while the other three major categories of passenger car varieties showed varying degrees of decline.

  

  有效需求尚待释放 一季度汽车行业整体承压

  

  From a hierarchical perspective, among traditional energy passenger vehicles, in the first quarter, C-class vehicles increased by 9.8% year-on-year, while other levels showed varying degrees of decline; At present, sales are mainly concentrated in A-class vehicles, with a cumulative sales volume of 2029000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In new energy passenger vehicles, the A00 level decreased by 55.3% year-on-year, with the D level experiencing the largest cumulative increase, while the other levels showed varying degrees of year-on-year growth.

  

  Against the backdrop of the overall decline in the passenger car market, Chinese brands have bucked the trend and gained over half of the market share. In the first quarter, a total of 2.683 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, accounting for 52.2% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. As a comparison, the sales of the five major foreign brands all showed varying degrees of decline year-on-year, with Japanese and French brands experiencing more significant declines.

  

  有效需求尚待释放 一季度汽车行业整体承压

  

  In the first quarter, the total sales volume of the top ten automobile sales groups was 5.057 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, accounting for 83.2% of the total automobile sales, which is 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year. Compared with the same period last year, the sales growth rate of the four enterprise groups was significant, followed by BYD, Chery, Tesla, and BAIC, with other enterprises showing varying degrees of decline.

  

  It is worth mentioning that automobile exports continue the strong trend of last year, and the growth rate has been continuously increasing since the beginning of this year. From January to March, automobile companies exported 994000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 70.6%. From a vehicle model perspective, the export of passenger cars reached 826000 units, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%; Export of 168000 commercial vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%. The export of new energy vehicles reached 248000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times.

  

  Among the top ten automobile export companies, in terms of growth rate, BYD exported 43000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.8 times; Chery exported 172000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times; Jiangqi exported 46000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 97.1%. In terms of total volume, SAIC Group continues to maintain a leading position, exporting 231000 vehicles in the first quarter.

  

  有效需求尚待释放 一季度汽车行业整体承压

  

  Compared to the overall car market, new energy vehicles still maintain a rapid growth trend. Data shows that in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 44.8% and 34.8%, and a market share of 26.6%; In the first quarter, production and sales completed 1.65 million and 1.586 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 27.7% and 26.2%, and a market share of 26.1%.

  

  In the first quarter, the top ten enterprise groups in terms of new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.348 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.4%, accounting for 85% of the total new energy vehicle sales, 9.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, BYD's sales have maintained a high growth rate on a high base, and Changan's sales growth rate has also maintained a high growth rate.

  

  When it comes to the performance of the automotive market in the second quarter, Xu Haidong, Deputy Chief Engineer of China Automobile Association, holds an optimistic attitude. He said, "In the last week of March, the industry's concern about the impact of the 'price reduction trend' on consumer willingness has decreased, and the wait-and-see sentiment has basically passed. Combined with a low base in the same period last year, the car market should have performed well in the second quarter of this year

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