As an industrial product, electric vehicles must be cheaper and cheaper.

　　Rather than the expensive stink of electric cars, Tesla cured them; Call it a self-correction of China's new energy vehicle market.

　　At the beginning of 2023, driven by Tesla, the auto price war became increasingly fierce. Enjie and Xiaopeng followed closely; GAC and BYD immediately joined the battle; To this day, there is even more Citroen with a direct drop of 90000 yuan in Wuhan, which forcefully fired a loud shot at the entry of fuel vehicles.

　　No madness, no survival. For the car companies that pay attention to the long-term principle, the market share competition at this moment is far more important than the current profits. But on the other hand, how to have the price competitiveness as much as possible is a very headache.

　　Reduce allocation and price? Increase the insurance price? When most auto companies are involved in the price, if anyone lies flat and does not act, it will be tantamount to "offending public anger".

　　To say the least, in fact, there are many ways for car companies to fight price wars, and various promotion policies emerge in an endless stream, which is bound to clear up a lot of cars in stock. However, it must be clear that price war is not the goal. How to win more consumers' favor is the fundamental point of this battle.

　　The good news is that with the decline of lithium carbonate price, new energy vehicle enterprises have a decent reason for price reduction, and their brand image can be preserved. In the longer term, can the chain reaction and changes in the market pattern that follow really end up with dignity?

　　01 The fall of lithium carbonate is a foregone conclusion

　　"The price of lithium carbonate will be greatly reduced in any case, because the demand is far less than expected."

　　On March 2, Li Xiang announced on his microblog that the number of insured passenger cars in January and February fell by more than 25% year on year, with the proportion of new energy passenger cars accounting for more than 30%. In other words, under the influence of the environment, the situation of new energy vehicles is not good.

　　Consumers are addicted to "wait and see", the demand for new energy vehicles is shrinking, and negative emotions are rising along the supply chain. Power battery companies, upstream raw material suppliers, etc. will be affected.

　　Rome was not built in a day.

　　In fact, it is not only the change of supply and demand in the short-term market that leads to the continuous decline of lithium carbonate price. Among them, there are many different influencing factors, such as the "lithium rebate" plan in the Ningde era, which acts as a "fuse".

　　According to 36 krypton, Ningde Times is actively promoting the lithium rebate plan to the automobile enterprises. The plan is not aimed at all customers, but is only open to several strategic partners such as Ideal, Weilai, Huawei and Jikron.

　　Specifically, the core terms of the lithium rebate plan are as follows: in the next three years, the lithium carbonate price of some power batteries will be settled at 200000/ton, but the auto companies that sign this cooperation need to commit about 80% of the battery purchase volume to Ningde Times.

　　In the Ningde era, when the power battery industry has been struggling for many years, it seems that the unilateral decline of lithium carbonate price was judged earlier. At this time, the general operation is to spread the war of price war to the whole power battery industry chain on the premise of further binding the auto companies.

　　Of course, it is also stimulated by various anecdotal news.

　　The news of the sodium ion battery is frequent, especially the appearance of the mass production model of the cooperation between CNK and JAC, which has played a significant role. In addition, the increasingly mature power battery recovery technology, the rediscovery of lithium resources, and the overcapacity of power battery enterprises have become a straw on the camel.

　　Not to mention, at the national level. As a result, there is only one way left for the upstream raw materials of power batteries such as lithium carbonate - to return to the value itself.

　　As for the law of price, economics defines it as follows: within a certain or specific period of time, the price fluctuation of a certain commodity or a certain kind of commodity is determined by the value of the commodity, and fluctuates around the value due to the influence of market supply and demand.

　　The increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles has stimulated the price of lithium carbonate, and at the same time, its price has far exceeded its own value. Therefore, the current price change, in addition to the impact of market supply and demand, is also a manifestation of the price law.

　　As for whether it will cause "stampede" in the capital market, we can only ask for more blessings.

　　02 How much will the cost of the whole vehicle decrease?

　　Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, once said that the price of lithium would return to the rational level of 350000/t - 400000/t in the second half of this year, and a more reasonable price balance point might be around 200000/t in the future.

　　This coincides with the "lithium rebate" plan of Ningde era, and the price of 200000/ton seems to be the final destination of lithium carbonate price.

　　So, with the decline of lithium carbonate price, how much can the vehicle cost be reduced?

　　First of all, it must be clear that lithium carbonate is one of the cathode materials of power battery. According to the different proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery and lithium ternary battery, its consumption is also different, and the cost proportion is naturally different.

　　In addition to module packaging, pack integration, labor costs, etc., it is very difficult to quantitatively calculate the cost change of power battery only based on the price fluctuation of lithium carbonate.

　　However, it can be roughly estimated that at the end of the first quarter of 2022, when the price of various raw materials rises to a high point, the cost of the ternary cell is 950 yuan/Kwh, and the cost of the lithium iron phosphate cell is 800 yuan/Kwh. According to the average 70 kilowatt-hour electricity of a single car battery pack, it is equivalent to 66500 yuan for a three-element battery cell of a single car and 56000 yuan for a lithium iron phosphate battery.

　　Considering comprehensive factors, lithium carbonate accounts for about 10%~15% of the total cost of power battery.

　　So when its price of 600000/ton drops to 200000/ton, it means that the cost of three-element battery per vehicle will drop by 2216~3325 yuan, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery per vehicle will drop by 1866~2800 yuan.

　　From the calculation results, the impact of lithium carbonate on the cost of finished vehicles seems not as large as expected. But don't forget that lithium carbonate is not "fighting" alone.

　　Related data show that the price of cathode materials, cathode materials and electrolyte has been reduced to different degrees, driven by the decline of lithium carbonate price. Such a combination of factors will inevitably result in a considerable cost reduction.

　　It is obvious that the price decline of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate is an inevitable outcome of the price war of new energy vehicles and a key factor in maintaining the balance of the automobile market.

　　After all, the new energy vehicle market is an inevitable battle for market share. What is certain is that in this bloody battle, the power battery can not be the short board for all the car companies to fight, but will at least be pulled back to the same level, so that more new energy car companies have the power to fight.

　　03 Power battery, no longer an obstacle

　　Last year or even earlier, the argument of "battery manufacturers kidnapping car companies" was always heard in the market, with the argument of Ningde era being the most vocal. Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC, shouted that "work for the Ningde era", which further intensified the contradiction between power battery enterprises and automobile enterprises.

　　In a short period of time, major automobile enterprises have responded, either to set up their own battery factories, or to actively seek secondary and tertiary power supply. GAC, Weilai and Xiaopeng, like the revolutionary vanguard, launched a series of attacks towards the inherent power battery market pattern.

　　Now, these actions have begun to take effect.

　　The market is like a battlefield, and the game is always casual.

　　The reason behind these actions of automobile enterprises is not so much that they want to develop their own power battery, but that they should interpret it as dividing up the voice of the power battery industry. Because only in this way can the cash flow be promoted more quickly, so that the automobile enterprises can be more confident and motivated in the market competition.

　　On the other hand, after such a series of car companies' continuous consumption and fighting, Ningde Times will certainly have some concerns, and power battery companies such as China Innovation Airlines and Guoxuan Hi-Tech will also be terrified. Only in this way can the industry chain have a reverence for the market and better promote the development of the new energy vehicle market.

　　And most importantly, with the efforts of all parties, the price of upstream raw materials has finally developed in a healthy direction, and the power battery market will gradually return to normal.

　　Undoubtedly, in terms of the current market environment, the development of new energy vehicles has become an important support for domestic economic recovery. Against this background, the high cost of power batteries will not be allowed to continue to serve as a stumbling block for the development of the incremental market.

　　After the problem of power battery is solved, new energy vehicles will officially enter the stage of "blade war". After all, killing one thousand enemies and losing eight hundred. If it is not necessary, no auto company is willing to join in the price war. However, in the same sentence, the general trend of the times is the same, and the market also needs such a battle of blood and fire to distinguish who is good currency and who is bad currency.

　　At this time, the price of lithium carbonate dropped, but it was a reform opportunity given to the market by the era of new energy vehicles. In addition to the price war in front of us, the following major automobile enterprises will also face product defense war, technology battle, and brand battle

　　Under such circumstances, how can we end up with dignity? Maybe it can only be life and death.