The development history of China's automobile industry seems to be a trade journey that relies on the strength of foreign capital and continues to be in line with the international standards due to market reform. In fact, under the witness of time, it is more like a series of dramas that seek opportunities in the process of change and frequently perform the "tiger eat" due to the rising of private enterprises.

　　Five years ago, the basic status quo of China's car market was still maintained in the rhythm of joint venture leading and independent soup drinking. Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors, even Hyundai, can enjoy themselves in the mainstream market. At that time, BYD was still wandering around in the glitz created by "542", and Geely and Great Wall were also seeking solutions under the multi-brand strategy.

　　Now, the market is upgrading and time is flowing. As no one could have expected, China could become a superpower feared by the world in one fell swoop. Various changes in the automobile industry have destroyed the nearly solidified industrial pattern in one fell swoop. In addition to learning to reflect on the falling sales volume, the former kings can only do more than bow to the market.

　　After a whole year of adjustment last year, 2023 has been regarded as the key year for whether the dominant power of China's car market will change hands. For joint-venture automobile enterprises, China's automobile market under the dramatic changes in the pattern may become a battleground for life and death from a hotbed.

　　If we win this battle, we will still occupy a place here. If we fail, everything will eventually return to zero.

　　The outside world is always speculating that after Chinese auto companies take the initiative, except for front-line members such as Toyota, Volkswagen and Honda, overseas brands including Korean and French brands will be reduced to a minority, bringing some "joy" to those poor and fastidious consumers. However, it is clear that these changes have a convincing background as the market further develops as expected.

　　The cold winter has arrived, and the market has quietly changed

　　At the end of 2022, we had a premonition that the winter of joint venture automobile enterprises was accelerating. Yueda Kia's annual sales fell below 100000 vehicles, and Beijing Hyundai also ended up with a year-on-year decline of 25.6% to 284000 vehicles. The situation of GM and Honda is also becoming increasingly difficult due to the epidemic, lack of core and other practical factors.

　　How about Volkswagen and Toyota? On the basis of the stable sales volume of the joint venture, the full number of slots left in the transformation of electrification, after market fermentation, is enough to lay a time bomb for it. Every new pure electric vehicle claims to be its strategic pure electric vehicle in China, but it is really difficult to get the recognition of Chinese consumers.

　　Once upon a time, when the new energy industry was just starting, the joint venture car companies had been extremely ambivalent when dealing with this change. After 20 years of strong control of China's auto market, "don't care" and "don't care" are almost their most habitual and often expressed attitudes towards the industry transformation with vague prospects.

　　Seeing that Weixiaoli can create some new value in the market, almost everyone will classify it as the contingency of the market. And the arrogant joint venture brand will not take it seriously. They firmly believe that time will prove everything, and that the strength of all outsiders is not enough to tear up the besieged city built by the automobile for 140 years.

　　Until more and more joint venture car companies such as Dongfeng-Renault and GAC-Fick were suddenly dismissed by the market, Volkswagen, who had fought in the first place, met with a rebuke, and the loneliness and dismay finally continued in the entire joint venture camp.

　　The year 2022 is a year in which Toyota is gaining momentum alone. In fact, it can not hide the market pattern of gradual collapse.

　　To be fair, in order to keep up with the tide of electric transformation, the joint venture car companies in China are not doing nothing. From the official announcement of the new electric strategy, to the perfection of the brand image, and even to the renewal of the whole ecosystem, some people are trying to wake up, and others are striding forward.

　　The determination of North and South Volkswagen goes without saying that the appearance of ID. 7 has shown that the dignity of the German people will never be lost in the turbulence of the automobile industry. For the same reason, the full input of i-series and EQ series, as well as the reserve of intelligent technology, has risen to a new dimension. BMW and Mercedes have also given their own answers with practical actions.

　　If you draw your attention to other factions and lean back on the GM Autotronic platform, the Cadillac Regal has also become one of the few new models that have caused heated discussion in the market since GM entered the electric field for many years. The Buick Electra series, which frequently appears in the announcements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is intended to complete the defensive formation built for GL8; Atuko, bZ4X, e: NS1/P1 and other Japanese pure electric new cars have been angrily brushed in the market over and over again

　　However, can their arrival bring full benefits to the entire joint venture camp? Reality tells us that we can, but not enough. And with the market moving forward at a speed far higher than the industry average, the joint-venture vehicle enterprises have the revolutionary heart, but are increasingly abandoned on the revolutionary road.

　　This year, just after February, GAC Toyota bite its teeth to lower the price of bZ4X to 169800 yuan. It is also reported that Dongfeng Nissan also offers more attractive consumer rights for Ireya. It can be said that in the entire joint venture camp, all the bottom cards played around Tesla's "price reduction" came one after another.

　　With the opening of 2023 under such circumstances, I believe that the joint venture brands that have not yet sold will not escape this price war. "Face or sales?" will become a difficult problem immediately.

　　The only way to live is to die

　　Joint venture brands, do you really understand the Chinese market? Based on the market feedback in the past 20 years, it is estimated that no one will deny it. North-South Volkswagen, North-South Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan and others have taken turns to build enough moats for themselves at various stages.

　　With the development of various localized models and more and more adaptive changes to the market, which joint venture brand can stay in China has not tasted the market dividend. It is also a frequent occurrence to reach the height of million-year sales. Even with the interference of various negative news such as engine throttle, brake door, broken axle door, etc., the brands involved can still enjoy the spring breeze after a short period of pain.

　　At that time and today, I don't want to use the old saying of "30 years of Hedong and 30 years of Hexi" to describe the current pattern changes of China's automobile industry, which has taken off because of the new energy industry. Just as Japanese cars swept across the North American market due to the oil crisis in those days, the reason why the scenes in the Chinese car market today started is that the internal reason has been embedded.

　　How difficult it is for the elephant to turn around. In the process of electric transformation, everyone in the joint-venture car enterprises felt the deep sense of the killing of 2023. Strategically, as mentioned above, more than one company has put forward extremely radical transformation plans.

　　Can the cold winter really pass away because of the blood? In the new year, when we have more discussions, there are still a few of the entire joint venture camp that can survive, which shows that under the rapid change of the overall environment, facing the shrinking market share, how to compete with Chinese brands, the final return path may become the issue that every joint venture brand needs to consider.

　　For Japanese and Korean auto companies, the words revolution and transition are exciting, but we have to admit that Toyota, Honda and Nissan are regarded as a whole, Hyundai and Kia are deeply bound, and placed in the competition of the whole new energy market. The story seems to have no surprises, and its deep meaning is nothing more than those that everyone knows.

　　They always think that the reason for their difficulties lies in the abnormal development of the industry caused by the excessive involvement of the new forces of Chinese car building. However, bystanders may think that these "disasters" are caused by the lack of universality of the product itself.

　　The market performance of bZ4X, e: NP1/S1 and Ireya is still very simple: Japanese brands have electric cars. Enkrypton 6 and Kia EV6 have successively appeared on the international stage such as the China International Fair, but they have failed to release us the specific time of "when they will be made". As for the full dimension of channel expansion and new marketing means, after giving the outside world a certain sense of freshness, it seems that it has not been paid attention again in the market environment surrounded by new forces.

　　Similarly, compared with the traditional European and American brands, the fuel car business has been bullied by the Chinese car companies at the head. From GM, which is stabbed by the consumption trend, to the brand of Stellantis, which boasts the viscosity of its fans and lives, to Skoda, which was reduced to the chicken ribs of SAIC in the early days, it is more telling us that the end of the effort will not necessarily usher in the dawn.

　　In this way, I think, except for a few auto companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda, which can rely on their huge base to maintain their pride as an overseas giant, others may become brands at the same level as Geely and Chang'an, and even sink into the third and fourth tier markets, and become members of non-mainstream independent brands. Especially Hyundai, Kia and Chevrolet, which have no brand viscosity.

　　It is getting closer and closer to the time when Chinese auto enterprises enter the era of prosperity. I believe that the story of China's auto market will be rewritten from the beginning.