The environment is full of powerful enemies, and there is no fertile ground for survival. Those so-called new forces of the United States are just struggling to survive.

In the process of electrification, the transformation of China's car market has gone far beyond everyone's imagination. From 2022 to now, Tesla has repeatedly refreshed the evolutionary logic of China's car market, and BYD has rewritten the entire pattern of the new energy market. All the changes are telling how China has become the industrial hinterland of the electric transformation, and how emerging car companies have prospered in this painful period.

The market has changed so dramatically that the word "EV" has become the basis for the rapid growth of most newcomers. However, we cannot deny that there is always gray scale in this industry from the bottom to the peak and from the ideal to the reality.

Li Yinan and Shen Hui, due to the stagnation of the Ziyoujia project and the survival dilemma of Weima, have become the negative examples of China's new energy development in 2022. Their failure made the outside world quietly realize that not all businesses linked to electric transformation can immediately enter the fast lane of "money generates money".

And look abroad, especially the American market. As Tesla applied the price reduction to the local market at the beginning of the year, Ford Motor announced that the price reduction of its Mustang Mach-E model in the US market ranged from 6% to 9%. The whole new energy industry was under unprecedented threat, and the devastation of novice players was still fierce.

Rivian and Lucid, who could not even touch the threshold of scale effect, fell into a desperate situation under the shock. Layoffs, recalls and other chaos emerge in an endless stream, which seems to be explaining to the outside world that the new force car builders have nearly collapsed in the United States. Without subsequent financial support and the pressure from the existing market, living is like a joke.

Inherent survival crisis

Indeed, the reshuffle led by Tesla has set off a huge wave in the Chinese market, which has been fermenting since the beginning of the year. China's new energy vehicle enterprises have the determination to attack Tesla actively behind the price reduction, but they can't hide it. The same new energy vehicle enterprises have always been in a loss in the profit category.

In the past few years, including "Wei Xiaoli", how many new forces have encountered obstacles in the way of finding money. Now, how many enterprises are still praying for new capital injection to ensure their next mass production and delivery. Even if the IPO has solved the urgent need for some people, it is still essential for everyone to seek new financing channels.

Returning to the key point of the topic, I emphasize how great the impact of Tesla's price reduction on local new forces is. The core reason is that, as the place where the global capital heat wave surges most violently, the investors are extremely sensitive to the survival status of listed companies. Reflecting the reality, once the stock price plummets, the new power enterprises that are already cash-strapped will lose even more confidence in survival.

In the United States, this is too common.

Just recently, Jia Yueting publicly revealed on Weibo that on February 6, FF (Faraday Future) announced a series of final financing agreements. It is reported that FF will raise all necessary funds for FF 91 Futurist to start mass production after successful implementation on time.

Specifically, after FF announced the implementation arrangement of the final agreement on the financing of US $135 million convertible guaranteed notes, if these funds were received in time, and FF received US $33.4 million after the "FF Global Investor Business Update Conference" held on December 15, 2022, the mass production of FF 91 Futurist would have sufficient security.

However, it is obvious that, based on past experience, this big probability is another "mouth hi". FF91 has always been on the way to mass production, and it is sheer fantasy to deliver it. As a listed company, FF has been known for many years not to stop the practice of "bad check" to circle money to spend the day.

If we push the timeline forward, when the American commercial electric vehicle manufacturer Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS) applied for bankruptcy protection in accordance with Chapter 7 of the United States Bankruptcy Law after reviewing its products and commercialization plan as early as the middle of last year, we can see how low the power of cars built in the United States is.

Perhaps, after years of market incubation, in addition to those capital-only speculators, Rivian and Lucid, which have achieved little success in the industry, have grown into new American car manufacturers with personal labels and survival possibilities. Its pace has expanded from the United States to other countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and other places.

However, in view of the development shackles of the laggards, from shrinking from trial and error to being pushed to the brink by Tesla, 2023 will be the year to bury such enterprises, which is not alarmist.

Despite the survival pressure brought by Tesla, Rivian, founded in 2009, did not deliver the first batch of vehicles until September 2021. By last year, its delivery volume was only 20300. With such slow delivery, there are also large-scale product recalls. Similarly, Lucid, holding the thigh of the local tyrant in the Middle East, has delivered only 4369 vehicles in the past year.

As for other new forces in the United States that have not yet formed, mass production is still a problem, let alone the delivery level.

To this day, some people still think that as the world's top three huge market, the American car market will provide a hotbed for development for every emerging car enterprise that has entered the new energy market before others. But at the same time, as Tesla has become a red eye for sales, we must ask, what should these new forces of the United States, which have not been able to persuade local consumers, take to survive?

No hope for the future

As electrification has swept the world, all core automobile markets have opened their doors to new energy vehicle enterprises, which is indeed the most significant feature of the transformation of the automobile industry in recent years. From China to the United States, new forces that smell business opportunities are springing up like mushrooms, which is also the epitome of the qualitative change in the auto industry.

However, even if we don't consider the above, just entering 2023, when Rivian, who was criticized by the market, announced the 6% layoff, it is believed that Rivian, who currently has about 14000 employees, will lay off about 840 employees, and take "cost reduction" as the primary means to maintain survival. Its situation has already been warmly sought after by the outside world as in the past.

It can be seen from this that in entering the new industry fission period, the new forces of the United States are undoubtedly more downbeat than the Chinese auto companies who are just at a loss in the price reduction tide. In addition, with the relatively mature consumption system, after the new energy industry has gradually entered the growth stage from the embryonic stage, I firmly believe that the rigid thinking inherent in the American car market will make Rivian more isolated.

Just like at this year's International Consumer Electronics Show CES, with the launch of the revolutionary electric pickup product Ram 1500 Revolution by Stellantis Group, the electric pickup products of the three major pickup truck families in the United States have been launched, and the time for centralized launch and delivery is also getting closer and closer. Who can say that Rivian, who also uses pickup as a selling point, can avoid this catastrophe.

How about trying to attack overseas markets? Rivian, who has repeatedly met with obstacles in the US market, is unable to continue. Lucid, who is also the number one new force in the US, seems to have taken this step with great foresight.

As we all know, Lucid has transferred its future from the United States to the Middle East, and Lucid's largest shareholder has become the Saudi sovereign fund Public Investment Fund (PIF); The Saudi government plays the role of a major customer, holding 100000 fixed orders and 50000 floating orders; Even under Saudi Arabia's national development plan "Vision 2030", there is a plan to build factories in the Middle East

However, Lucid's plan is still early. Elon Musk once hinted to the outside world that "Lucid may be close to bankruptcy", which was never a joke.

When the power of capital does not match with the ecology of the automobile industry, the blueprint of the most beautiful is empty talk. Saudi Arabia has no wealth, but it can't help Lucid again at the level of establishing its own electric vehicle production system and supply chain. In fact, it is laying a "unsustainable" steel seal for this new American power.

At the end of last year, Lucid quietly updated dozens of recruitment information on the official website, which showed that the workplace was located in Shanghai. Among the positions recruited, there were 14 positions in digital information, hardware engineering, law, logistics management, supply chain, retail and other fields. Now, when news comes out again, a senior executive who has served as the head of user development and operation of many Chinese auto companies will join Lucid. Does that mean that Lucid's next step is almost transparent?

Of course, even if the answer is yes. I still believe that the end of the story has been decided from the moment these new American forces chose China as the bridgehead of development. "Accelerated death" is the only end for them to dare to break into China.

Is it true that the new American forces such as Rivian and Lucid have no chance to survive? Based on the existing market feedback and their respective understanding of the future, the new forces of the United States have long passed a critical period in which they can grasp the development context. In other words, the emergence of large-scale cost reduction measures due to Tesla's price reduction is only superficial. "Life" or "death" will soon come to an end in the turbulent market in 2023.