In the post epidemic era, car owners and technicians will have a three-month waiting period; During this period, large-scale survival of the fittest is more likely to occur, and the business of excellent auto service stores will go up to a new level.

Winter has come, can spring be far behind?

Since December, major cities across the country have announced "code reduction" for epidemic prevention; At the same time, on December 5, the oil price was adjusted for the ninth time this year. Every rise of gasoline fell 0.33-0.39 yuan, which means that the oil price will return to the era of 7 yuan.

In 2023, when we gradually open up to ensure the people's livelihood, what changes will the automotive aftermarket face? This article tries to analyze it.

01. 3-month waiting period

In essence, human nature avoids risks and tends to be controllable; If we really fully open up, most people will certainly be more cautious and choose a more stable wait-and-see attitude, that is, reduce going out and gathering, and wait until the situation is clear before taking action. Until the first wave of COVID-19 infection has passed, the next decision will be made according to the situation. Therefore, the following three phenomena will occur:

1. Most people do not travel without traveling. They have to choose to drive. Therefore, the travel rate of private cars will rise, and maintenance will usher in a wave of climax.

2. During the wait-and-see period (January to March 2023), the automotive aftermarket in the first and second tier cities will face a shortage of workers. After many first and second tier city mechanic technicians return home during the Spring Festival, their first decision is to avoid risks. Therefore, they will choose to postpone returning to the first and second tier cities and stay in their hometown to see the situation; They will not return easily until the situation is clear.

Unless the employer can promise to increase wages, refer to how Zhengzhou Foxconn summoned people who had fled. Before March, repair shops in the first and second tier cities will suffer from serious labor shortage until the situation becomes clear.

3. During the wait-and-see period, the perceptual demand of car owners will continue to decline, which is reflected in the owner of the automobile service. The car owners are more and more willing to pull wool. As long as the low price washing, low price maintenance and other concessions are released, a lot of car owners will pull wool, but the transformation will be more and more difficult.

The owner's wallet will be tightly covered, and no one will spend freely until the situation is unclear. After all, in case of family infection with COVID-19 and facing a medical run, having cash and not having cash in hand are two different things.

02. Four conjectures in the stable period

After the three-month wait and see period, no matter how the situation develops, most people will gradually react from panic. Adapt to the life coexisting with COVID-19. COVID-19 is like a cold in the hearts of ordinary people, not a monster.

In the post mask period, most people's living habits will return to normal; But some things can't go back.

In the stable period, what will happen? Let's guess that business also has the following four changes:

1. Large scale survival of the fittest

No matter how the epidemic develops, the trend of new energy rapidly replacing fuel vehicles will not change, the general trend of shrinking demand for automobile services will not change, and it will be an indisputable fact that there are fewer and fewer repair shops. Due to the influence of two aspects, it will accelerate the survival of the fittest stores.

The first is that many poorly managed stores are now in the stage of trying their best to catch fish because of their long-term activities. Some stores, even staff salaries and rents, can only be paid after they are recharged. In the wait-and-see period, when car owners are more cautious about spending, these stores are more difficult to sustain.

Second, due to the shortage of talents during the wait-and-see period, it will become the last straw to overwhelm poorly managed stores.

The excellent stores are easy to survive due to their stable operation and abundant cash flow. The owners and customers of those stores that are poorly managed will be absorbed by excellent stores one after another. Therefore, in the stable period, the business of excellent auto service stores will go up to a higher level.

2. It's getting easier to hire people

With the beginning of large-scale survival of the fittest, technical and management talents will be released one after another, which also gives a rare opportunity for well managed stores to upgrade talents. In the past, it was not easy to invite talents, just like a former boss complained to the author: please call the grass root team. The technology is poor, and the people are still unconvinced; Dig people from 4S stores and large chain stores. It's expensive to say that others are not suitable for a single store with millet and rifles. It can be said that a small temple can't afford a living bodhisattva.

What's more, the author also encountered a funny problem when tutoring the store: a repairman had worked in the 4S store before, and he also recognized the basic management of tutoring. But he said, "You are very good, and the 4S store is similar to this. But I just don't want to accept the constraint to work. If you implement this in the store, why don't I go back to the 4S store?"

Of course, there is no such thing now, because the landlords have no surplus food. Under the impact of new energy, the 4S store is also struggling. Therefore, large-scale store elimination will bring a wave of talent dividends to excellent stores. If the stable automobile service stores can seize the opportunity and timely design the personnel access mechanism, the situation that talents are not easy to hire and dare not hire can be effectively improved.

3. Regional chain associations have sprung up

During the stable period, car owners tend to be conservative in their choices. Based on the general risk aversion mentality, they will not easily try unfamiliar or poorly managed stores. After all, try not to be infected if you can; Moreover, as large-scale e-commerce subsidies gradually subside (landlords have no surplus food), the false price advantage of chain stores will disappear.

Then, excellent local regional chain advantages will be highlighted. The first is that regional chains can access some high-quality resources that small-scale stores cannot undertake, such as designated insurance, designated maintenance of enterprises and institutions, etc; In addition, the operation is more flexible than the national automobile service chain, and it is easy to turn around when the ship is small. After several years of experience in blood and fire, the regional chains that can survive must cultivate their own unique way of survival.

4. Short video costs are getting higher and higher. Whether it's Tiktok or Kwai, the rapid growth of VV volume (video playback volume) is due to the blocking and control of one after another. Fengkong can do nothing at home. It seems that he can do little except brush videos, which is the direct reason why Shakuai can emerge as a new force.

However, as the normal order of the social level gradually recovers, the operation cost of the fast shake will become higher and higher. It will be more and more rare to attract a large number of car owners by sending a few videos. You need to continue to invest energy and money until the cost is close to the e-commerce.

In fact, it has happened now. You can see from the large number of "teachers" who teach Tiktok how to play Tiktok. A simple truth: if you can make money lying down, your brothers will not tell you, let alone strangers. After the social level returns to normal, the owners of auto service stores have to think about how to operate We Media in a refined way and how much energy and time they plan to invest in it.

The last and above are my guesses about the current market. No one knows what will happen in the future. But the way to win may be just like Nurhachi's strategy: I will go all the way if you come any way. I will concentrate on optimizing my strengths and basic management of the store, just like a practical tractor. Even if the car is a piece of muddy land, I can also work vertically and horizontally to reap rich fruits. This is the end of this article. I'm Huang Can. In Wuhan, I wish you all the best and make a lot of money. Thank you for your support.