Look, it's snowing heavily, it's a good sign. "On January 6th Beijing time, NIO, which is always in the vortex of public opinion, welcomed an important milestone moment of the production of its one millionth new car. To be fair, as a brand that firmly cultivates high-end pure electric products, the journey has indeed been very difficult.

After the offline ceremony, Li Bin and Qin Lihong, as the helmsmen, held a face-to-face communication in the basketball court located in NIO's second factory, facing dozens of media outlets as usual. Coincidentally, the two founders just expressed their gratitude to everyone for coming to support them. Accidentally, they looked out the window and suddenly noticed the sudden change in weather, which led to the opening line of emotion. It is said that 'auspicious snow heralds a bountiful year'. After experiencing a bottoming out rebound in 2025, NIO has boldly entered 2026, embarking on another challenging new journey. Throughout the entire interview, Li Bin and Qin Lihong answered hundreds of questions collected in advance. While reviewing what has been done in the past 365 days, there are also spoilers of what will be done in the next 365 days. As a witness, if I try to summarize the underlying theme in one paragraph, my answer is: "After eleven years of car manufacturing, NIO has finally found its own rhythm. However, the increasingly cruel environment has also made this new force of car manufacturing dare not take it lightly." In other words, there is no right to relax for a moment.

In 2025, I think it's still a bit short of expectations

Sales volume is always the clearest mirror reflecting the survival status of a new force in car manufacturing. So, attempting to increase NIO's delivery volume from January to December 2025, from 13863 vehicles to 13192 vehicles, to 15039 vehicles, to 23900 vehicles, to 23231 vehicles, to 24925 vehicles, to 21017 vehicles, to 31305 vehicles, to 34749 vehicles, to 40397 vehicles, to 36275 vehicles, and then to 48135 vehicles, has overcome numerous difficulties and drawn an upward curve.

The total score of 326028 vehicles, although not achieving the previously promised goal, was not too bad, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9%. In Li Bin's eyes, "there must be a slight deviation from expectations, and there are many reasons behind it. However, overall, we have achieved our strategic goals. Especially since the second half of 2025, we have entered the third phase of high-speed growth from the bottom. If we look at the delivery volume, it has continued to increase since May and June, reached new highs in August and September, and then surged to 48000 vehicles in December. It is basically a continuous upward trend." As for the characteristics of entering the third phase of high-speed growth, according to Li Bin's summary: firstly, the three brands under its umbrella, NIO, Ledao, and Firefly, have started to work together; Secondly, as R&D investment gradually bears fruit, it greatly enhances product competitiveness, while technological innovation replaces costs, resulting in a continuous increase in overall gross profit margin; Furthermore, the advantages of rechargeable, replaceable, and upgradable energy replenishment systems are gradually being realized. From my personal perspective, I have always believed that for all the new forces of car making that remain at the table, they essentially still adhere to the underlying logic of "explosive driven". To put it more bluntly, holding a hot selling product can solve survival problems; Holding two or more best-selling car models can help businesses live better.

Based on this standard, what exactly did NIO do right in 2025? The answer lies in the successive incubation of high-quality pure electric car Fireflies, as well as the opening of the golden age of pure electric three row cars with the Ledao L90 and the all-new ES8. It is precisely because of the continuous assistance of the three parties that the protagonist of today's article has obtained the "source power" to climb out of the quagmire, especially the all-new ES8 priced at over 400000 yuan, which delivered 22256 units in December, making it the "savior" of the entire company. Of course, in the past 365 days, in addition to conducting three effective new releases, we have also felt that NIO is becoming increasingly efficient and pragmatic after resolutely scraping bones and treating toxins. Once, this new force in car manufacturing was always willing to talk about "long termism"; Nowadays, it has become the most accounting oriented car company in the industry, spending every penny as much as possible on the cutting edge. Perhaps only by approaching the cliff infinitely can one truly achieve enlightenment. After experiencing the cruel baptism of 2025, NIO must have found the methodology of "harvest victory" to obtain the most precious thing. However, after passing the milestone of one million vehicles, Li Bin felt that it was not worth being proud of. This scale is still a very small company in the Chinese automotive industry, so we have no reason to think too much now. In the next cycle, we need to become the most reliable company in the entire industry

In just a few dozen words, it seems to reflect a complete change in the helmsman's mindset. Now, I believe there is no reason for the outside world to criticize him for "not doing his job properly". Li Bin, who concentrates resources on car manufacturing, has also led NIO to gradually reach the threshold of "self generation". In the interview, when asked if he could make a profit in the fourth quarter of 2025, his answer undoubtedly gave everyone a reassurance. Everyone can simply calculate the account. From the perspective of Non GAAP, we lost 2.7 billion yuan in the third quarter. Compared with the third quarter, we delivered more than 40000 units of the new ES8 with higher gross profit in the fourth quarter, with a gross profit margin of over 20%. At the same time, we also controlled other expenses well. Of course, the final financial figures have not been released and we need to wait for the final audit, but we still have confidence. ”It cannot be denied that for a long time in the past, huge losses have been the "sword of Damocles" hanging over NIO's head, seriously dragging down its image in the minds of terminal potential customers. If the profit target can be successfully achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025, many stubborn problems will be easily solved. As for the answer, it will be revealed soon.

02 "In 2026, continue to build strong strongholds and fight useless battles"

If I were to rate NIO's overall performance in 2025, I would give it an "85 point rating". The scoring items have actually been listed one by one in the above paragraph. If there are missing items, they will be more concentrated on some fluctuations.

For example, the music path of changing coaches, overcoming numerous difficulties, and returning to the right track. In the final closing stage, with the end of the L90's first sales period, there was indeed a month on month decline in delivery volume. The brand voice that still needs to be improved, the fierce competition in the price range of 200000 to 300000 yuan, and the expansion speed of the lower tier market's sinking channels have all become the main influencing factors behind it. In the interview, Li Bin responded, "The fluctuations in sales of Ledao are actually okay. As the saying goes, in today's smart electric vehicle industry, most people only see delivery numbers, and we have always focused on new orders, which is the true market competitiveness. From this perspective, we are generally satisfied with Ledao's performance in the second half of 2025, including its performance in November and December." The implication is that the resilience of this second brand of NIO is far stronger than what we see. By 2025, the delivery volume will exceed 100000, which can be considered as meeting expectations. However, objectively speaking, just over a week into the new year, one can already deeply feel the undercurrent and chill of the entire market. 2026 is destined to be a life and death battle for all new forces in car manufacturing. Therefore, both the NIO brand and Ledao, including Firefly, must contribute within their capabilities to help NIO pass this big test.

I believe many people are very concerned about our sales target, as Li Bin said, we will maintain a steady growth rate of 40% -50%. In contrast, the key is to improve the quality beyond sales growth, including profit level, satisfaction level, and user experience level. Finally, we should focus on selling good cars, providing good services, and building infrastructure, and not think about anything else. "Qin Lihong's response dragged out the basic plan for NIO 2026. According to his spoiler, after the Spring Festival, the comprehensive stores of "Weile Ying" will gradually begin to layout, especially for the low-end market. As for the battery swapping stations, we will make every effort to add 1000 new ones, and the fifth generation stations will be implemented in bulk by early April at the latest. In Li Bin's view, the fourteen character motto of "building a strong fortress, fighting a foolish battle, fighting a daily battle, and striving for long-term success" will become the most crucial development policy for the entire company in the future. "We don't want any big ups and downs, we just hope to steadily grow." Therefore, in 2026, achieving full year profitability will also be NIO's business goal. From the 500000 to the 1 millionth vehicle, the protagonist of today's article spent a full 17 months, and Li Bin and Qin Lihong hope to complete the next 1 million vehicles in a shorter time.

As for the pace of new cars that everyone is concerned about, the three full-size pure electric SUVs, the Ledo L80, the all-new ES7, and ES9, are basically "clearly" in the market. What NIO wants to do is undoubtedly to thoroughly penetrate the high margin large car market through a combination of punches. In the interview, Li Bin also mentioned that "ES9 has entered the manufacturing and mass production stage and will be released in the second quarter. I believe that ES9 will achieve the same success as ES8, and I dare not say it will be more successful. In its price range, I believe it will be the most successful pure electric vehicle. ”From his words, the deep meaning conveyed is similar to the gameplay of ES8. ES9, with full configuration and comparable to ET9, may have unexpected surprises in pricing. What NIO needs is definitely a flagship that can drive traffic.

And this week, in the latest list of new cars released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the ES9 officially unveiled its mysterious veil. The size of a single wheel vehicle truly deserves the title of 'flagship'. Competitors, on one hand, are targeting the Wanjie M9 and the upcoming all-new Ideal L9, while on the other hand, they are targeting the Mercedes Benz GLS and BMW X7. Of course, we have also seen the laser radar version of the Ledao L90, which has been added to the new car catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology this time. It is worth noting that the Ledao L80 is also quietly on the list. In 2026, both it and the all-new ES7 will carry a heavy burden on their shoulders. As is well known, although the market for large three row SUVs has been booming recently, for more potential consumers, large five seater SUVs are the real necessity. Both need to harvest as many orders as possible within their respective price ranges, based on both emotions and reason. Only in this way can a compound annual growth rate of 40% -50% in sales be achieved.

As for what kind of achievements fireflies can achieve with the opening of globalization strategy, it will also be an indispensable support point. In summary, from NIO's perspective, 2026 can still be seen as another "product year". But the severe and thorny challenge is that competitors' attacks will also be more fierce, especially in the large car market dominated by Ideal, Xiaomi, and HarmonyOS. No matter who it is, they must rely on their own abilities and fight for meat in the thorny jungle. Standing at a new starting point of one million vehicles, the protagonist of today's article has no right to relax for a moment. As Li Bin advised in his recent internal letter, "The more brutal the environment, the more we need to maintain strategic composure, not underestimate ourselves or deceive ourselves, maintain our original intention, and focus on action." After all, NIO is still far from achieving true victory