The golden age of extended range third row has passed, and the golden age of pure electric third row has arrived, "Li Bin, as the helmsman, confidently expressed the viewpoint at the beginning of the article in the interview room on the second floor of the NIO booth during the media day of the Guangzhou Auto Show in late November.

As for the supporting evidence behind it, there is nothing more than the Le Dao L90 achieving delivery of over 10000 vehicles for three consecutive months, and the all-new ES8 only took 41 days to pass the 10000 vehicle mark. With the strong output of both, this new force in the quagmire of car manufacturing has finally achieved a bottoming out rebound, and even seen the dawn of profitability in the fourth quarter. As a witness, on the one hand, I feel a little relieved. On the other hand, regarding the trend mentioned by Li Bin, it can only be said that he partially agrees. Currently, it must be acknowledged that the terminal demand for pure electric three row SUVs has been gradually stimulated by the continuous promotion of multiple excellent products. In contrast, the sluggish growth of extended range three row SUVs is fundamentally due to the cyclical adjustments of major brands such as Ideal and Wanjie. Once the timeline is stretched, it is obviously impossible to jump to conclusions. Based on the current information, if the new energy three row SUV segment has become overcrowded this year, then next year, with the replacement of more old players and the influx of new players, pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range products will all enter the market, becoming an even more bloody and suffocating sea. As the title of the article suggests, "The real hunting moment has begun

01 No one can always be ahead

In fact, as early as the beginning of this year, the author roughly estimated that about 15 new energy large three row SUVs would debut in the Chinese car market.

In addition to the Le Dao L90 and the all-new ES8 mentioned at the beginning, there are also well-known models such as the Wanjie M8, Wanjie M7, Galaxy M9, Lynk&Co 900, Jike 9X, Ideal i8, Tesla Model YL, Tengshi N9, Tengshi N8L, and more. So, after more than 300 days of crazy fighting, how did they perform towards the end of the year? The answer I gave is straightforward: "Some are happy and some are sad, no one can always lead." For example, in November, combined with the retail sales released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, we saw a rapid increase in the new ES8 and Extreme Krypton 9X, corresponding to a significant decline in the Ledo L90 and Lynk&Co 900. For example, attempting to analyze the output curve of the WENJIE M8 inevitably led to some degree of internal diversion after the launch of the WENJIE M7, a "fellow sibling". For example, the Wenjie M9 and the Ideal L9, as the "defenders" of the new energy three row SUV sector, have also been greatly impacted and challenged from various dimensions. Even the top tier members mentioned above have experienced ups and downs in the surging competition, not to mention the remaining participants who are already weak in terms of products, volume, or channels. Despite putting in a lot of effort, manpower, material resources, and financial resources for a year, sales are pitifully low. Faced with this situation, I can't help but sigh again: "The cake of new energy three row SUVs is far from delicious

Externally, the overall market size is limited, and it feels like it's only around 1.5 million vehicles. In the short term, with such a large influx of car models, there will inevitably be serious internal competition. During this process, several very typical phenomena have also emerged. Firstly, the overall experience of new energy three row SUVs is becoming increasingly homogeneous. Especially when "refrigerators, televisions, and large sofas" become standard equipment, the marketing strategies of various companies have become dull, and compared to their peers, the function of "no one has what I have" is becoming less and less common. Secondly, the price war for new energy large three row SUVs is very fierce. In order to grab orders as much as possible, some brands even go so far as to break the hierarchical classification and pricing system that they have always followed in the past, and trade price for quantity to "harm the enemy by a thousand and self harm by eight hundred". Furthermore, the winning point for new energy three row SUVs is still brand power. Due to the homogeneity of experience and price competition, for potential customers with ample budget, the ultimate determining factor in choosing to purchase is who has a better image and can provide more added value. This year, we have witnessed many blindly confident host manufacturers. At first, they thought they were "holding their hands" when entering the sub sector, but in the end, they became so-called "cannon fodder". Looking deep, the lack of brand power is the biggest pain point. In other words, it simply cannot sustain this category. Without exaggeration or criticism, the test of a car company's system capability for a new energy three row SUV is much higher than imagined, and there must be no shortcomings in all aspects. Even if it is achieved, those who can ensure sustained leadership are still rare. As the saying goes, "The competition is too fierce." It is said that there is a "curse" in the current Chinese car market, that is, many new cars often experience a cliff like decline in sales after digesting their first sales orders, often three months later. Looking towards the new energy three row SUV sector, it is undoubtedly being realized that no one can always lead.

Who is the 'X factor'?

Next year, including those already on sale this year and those constantly entering the market, it is estimated that there will be around 30 models of large three row new energy SUVs

It's not a fabrication. Last week, while communicating with a friend from a certain host manufacturer, he provided the above information. To be fair, I wasn't too surprised to hear it. Because if you are familiar with the survival rules of the Chinese car market, then you must know one of the iron laws: "Wherever there is a trend, there will be continuous pioneers." The "big gold rush" of new energy large three row SUVs is gradually entering its most fervent stage. Next year, almost every host manufacturer will continue to explore this category, even forming a family matrix of top and bottom combinations. The only difference is the early or late entry into the game, and the high or low positioning. So, new questions arise, who will be the 'X factor' among them? To put it more bluntly, who would suddenly emerge and change the entire situation, becoming the undisputed winner? Regarding voting, from a personal perspective, I would first like to vote for two products. One of them is the upcoming replacement of the Ideal L9. It must be acknowledged that the success of the new energy three row SUV segment today is entirely due to the assistance and leadership of the Ideal L9. It is not an exaggeration to say that even now, its shadow can still be seen on many athletes.

But precisely based on this background, because it is always regarded as the target of siege by everyone, coupled with the deviation of its own innovation speed, this year's Ideal L9 has clearly fallen from the pedestal, and even the entire L series has shown weak sales. For this new force in car manufacturing, such a predicament should be broken. Further extension, the next generation of Ideal L9, with arrows on the string, is bound to regain what was lost. From the information circulating online, it can be said that this heavy-duty extended range six seater SUV is armed to the teeth. If the final pricing can be the same as the current model, with a focus on "increasing quantity without increasing price", and with the help of marketing, there is hope to become the "X factor" next year. In contrast, the second vote is intended for Xiaomi YU9. In fact, we have already witnessed the technology giant's ability to cross over and reduce dimensions, as well as shape explosive models, in SU7 and YU7. It's YU9's turn, and the attack is likely to become even more terrifying. After all, from Xiaomi's perspective, there is a great need for another phenomenal product that can spark discussions and dispel the visible haze. At the same time, after establishing a foothold in the pure electric market, we also need the assistance of the extended range sector to seek new increments for ourselves and achieve the expected two legged walk.

Due to various factors, YU9 is destined to become a presence that everyone fears. Based on the current rumors, this extended range three row SUV, which is mainly designed for family travel, is sure to be fully equipped with various parameters and configurations. The true killer of YU9 is expected to provide consumers with a great value for money, which is in line with Xiaomi's consistent strategy. Assuming, I mean assuming, that its final price can reach around 300000 yuan, cleverly avoiding the flagship competition with competitors such as Ideal L9 and Wenjie M9, what would be the situation? Moreover, this extended range three row SUV may not even be named "YU9". Anyway, once the above deduction comes true, then becoming the "X factor" is basically guaranteed. Of course, setting aside Ideal and Xiaomi, for outstanding players like Wanjie, NIO, Jike, and Lynk&Co who have achieved remarkable results this year, the new energy three row SUV sector should not be neglected. Next year, the extent to which the Chinese car market can climb will largely depend on the support of this' foundation '. Coincidentally, competitors such as BYD, Zero Run, Xiaopeng, Zhiji, Lantu, Avita, and even joint venture brands represented by Volkswagen, will determine how much of the "cake" they can get in the new energy three row SUV sector next year, and whether they can live more comfortably in the Chinese car market.

Nowadays, it is very difficult to defeat the enemy with one move. Many core technologies have been leading for a year or more. For example, our fully active suspension can lead for at most a year and a half. If we return to the basic rules of this industry, it is a long-term marathon. If you can be more efficient than others in every aspect by one or two points, then in the end, you can be three to five points higher than others. This is the difference between an excellent company and an ordinary company. In the end, you still have to build a strong fortress, fight a stupid battle, and work hard for a long time. "During the communication meeting after the release of the third quarter financial report, Li Bin once expressed such a sigh. At this moment, it undoubtedly fits perfectly with the protagonist of today's article. At this point of the battle, who can win the new energy three row SUV? The next challenge will be determination, awareness, and execution. And yesterday, it coincided with the delivery of the 30000th vehicle of the all-new ES8. In just 89 days, it successfully set the fastest record for a pure electric vehicle with over 400000 yuan. May I ask, can we once again prove that the golden age of pure electric three row SUVs has arrived? From my perspective, I still cannot fully agree. Because a sample of over three months is not long enough. By contrast, the only thing that can be certain is that the hunting time for new energy three row SUVs has begun. Next year, it's clear which one is stronger or weaker.