Recently, I have participated in multiple exclusive interviews with executives from new forces in the automotive industry. On the one hand, I sincerely feel happy for each family to gradually step onto the right track; On the other hand, I also felt the enormous pressure and challenges from the terminal from the mouths of all the helmsmen. Being in the Chinese car market, we must not take it lightly. Today's article attempts to piece together several opinions on the Chinese car market next year using fragmented information.

I think every car company is trembling with fear, and everyone wants to achieve stability and long-term success. A year ago, it was difficult for us to think of the changes now, and a year later, it is also difficult to think of them. I think there are many changes. The only thing we can be sure of is that competition will be even more brutal and bloody. "After the launch conference of the Xiaopeng X9 extended range version on November 20th, some media asked about their views on next year's situation, and the above paragraph was the answer given by He Xiaopeng. At the media communication meeting the day after the release of the third quarter financial report, Li Bin was also asked a similar question and quickly gave his opinion: "I agree with Mr. Xiaopeng's statement that the competition intensity in the Chinese car market is actually increasing every year. Which year is not bloody? Which year is not cruel? Perhaps it will not be until 2035 that the pattern can truly stabilize." Combining their outputs, the most core central idea can be extracted: "Whether it is joint venture or independent, all OEMs should give up their illusions. The competition next year will only be more intense." In fact, according to the current known product plan, almost every segmented market will be dominated by one product. New products are filling up. Taking the large six seater SUV segment as an example, it was thought that more than a dozen "newcomers" would flood in this year, but they have already reached the so-called "extreme".

Unexpectedly, next year, with the continuous iteration and playing of many truly "big demon kings" such as Ideal, Xiaomi, NIO, and HarmonyOS, an even more suffocating competition has just begun. Based on this background, it is destined that many players will become cannon fodder. Similar plotlines will continue to unfold in various sectors of the Chinese car market. At present, it is very difficult to defeat the enemy with one move. Many core technologies are already leading for a year and a half. For example, our fully active suspension can lead for at most a year and a half. If we return to the basic rules of this industry, it is a long-term marathon, and the final comparison is still comprehensive ability. There cannot be any shortcomings. If you can be one or two points more efficient than others in every aspect, then you can be three to five points higher than others in the end. This is the difference between an excellent company and an ordinary company. In the end, we still have to build a strong foothold, fight in vain, and work hard for a long time. "In less than two hundred words, Li Bin expressed a deeper view on the current overall market. Continuing to refine the most crucial principle, it directly points out: "Next year's Chinese car market will not have a lightning war, only a consumption war. It is time to truly test multidimensional grain and forage reserves." In a subsequent interview, Li Bin expressed a bit helplessly, "Because of the early withdrawal of trade in subsidies this year, the tail effect in the fourth quarter has disappeared. Except for the new ES8, Firefly, and ET9, the sales of several other products have been more or less affected

This also explains in advance why NIO's delivery volume in November experienced a month on month decline and failed to break through the 40000 vehicle mark again. Overall, from November 1st to November 23rd, the retail data of passenger cars in China also showed a year-on-year and month on month decline. As of now, there is no sign of improvement in the market as it has cooled down. Although combined with the sales performance reports of various companies this week, leaders such as BYD, Geely, and HarmonyOS are still able to dominate the market and run fiercely, what we see more is the struggle of the main manufacturers at the waist and tail, who are struggling to maintain their market share and prevent it from shrinking too quickly. In the face of this situation, one cannot help but sigh once again: "The era of rapid growth in China's automobile market is over, and on the contrary, the somewhat terrifying era of stock competition has arrived." Continuing to look towards the new energy camp, with the complete reduction of replacement subsidies and the overall halving of purchase tax subsidies, the overall market downturn is likely to become even more severe. If this year's fourth quarter upturn effect has already caused a slight chill, then the first quarter of next year will be the truly unbearable winter. On one hand, the continuous deterioration of the external survival environment, and on the other hand, the increasing demand for internal survival, making it difficult to resolve conflicts, are becoming increasingly prominent in the Chinese car market.

In the end, the result is likely to be a continuous escalation similar to a "price war", with industry resources further concentrated towards the top tier members. To borrow the words of another OEM executive, "The real wave of sand washing has begun." This also leads to the next topic. In an interview after the launch of the Leapmotor Lafa5, Zhu Jiangming once again emphasized Leapmotor's determination to target 1 million vehicles next year. Although the subsidy reduction has had a certain impact on terminal demand, I believe that the total volume of the entire Chinese car market will not change much next year, and the penetration rate of new energy is estimated to increase by another 5% -10% on the basis of this year. For us, we need to strive for an increase in the current stock of 500000 vehicles, and the remaining part will be shared by several other new cars. As we all know, this year's Zero Run, with the outstanding contributions of several popular models under the B series and C series, achieved the original target of 500000 vehicles 45 days ahead of schedule.

Next year, this new force in car manufacturing will launch multiple new cars under the A series and D series, following the Lafa5. After all expansions are completed, the product matrix for sale will reach double digits, which is an absolute bargaining chip for it to reach higher sales targets. Although rationally and objectively speaking, referring to the "Million Curse" that has appeared many times before, the path of Zero Run's attack will definitely not be smooth sailing. However, standing at this point, at least we have the confidence and probability to touch this important milestone. The tactical approach adopted by this new force in car manufacturing undoubtedly confirms another truth: "Since the Chinese car market has entered the era of stock competition next year, from the perspective of OEMs, they must maintain the size of their cake by increasing the density of their license plates, not only for sales, but also for brand reputation." Of course, it is not advocating blindly "having more children makes it easier to fight". In contrast, we want to call on everyone to innovate from the perspective of users as much as possible with higher efficiency, precise positioning, sincere pricing, and platform advantages. Coincidentally, during the conference call after the release of the third quarter financial report, He Xiaopeng personally revealed that there will be a total of 7 extended range car models coming to the forefront next year; According to the disclosure, the entire Hongmeng Zhixing will release over 20 new cars next year; Not to mention independent giants like BYD and Geely, the saturation attack on the product side is certain. Almost all car companies are trying to bet on the qualitative change caused by quantitative changes.

But Li Bin expressed a different opinion: "We only have three cars next year, and I don't think we have to keep selling them. Look at this year, we only have two cars that sell well, and we don't necessarily have to be so close, and the team may not be able to get it done. Now, instead, we need to lay them out relatively evenly. In the past, we were a generation of cars that were all thrown out in a relatively short period of time, and this may not be good." So, which path can lead to the other side of victory, I believe time will eventually give the most authentic feedback. And now, from the sales fluctuations of the Ledao L90 in November, I have come to realize another truth: "The lead cycle and harvest window left for a strong product will not be too long, at most only three months. The pursuers behind will catch up and use all means to erode your advantage." This is the end of the article, and through several recent interviews with new force executives, I undoubtedly have a deeper understanding of the current situation. In summary, as today's title suggests, "2025 has not officially ended yet, 2026 has already revealed its fangs." The Chinese car market is becoming more and more like a fierce "beast. As the end of the year approaches, for each host factory, after a moment of respite, they must immediately enter a new round of competition. The fact is, it's so heart wrenching.