"Who likes to use this backward technology?"

About five years ago, Zengcheng was labeled as such by some people in the industry. However, with the passage of time, especially the head players led by ideals and the world of inquiry shouted and reaped desperately, and its location in China's car market gradually grew into a force that can not be ignored.

Last year, terminal sales soared, and more and more OEMs embraced this technical route.

It is precisely against this background that a "storm theory" was thrown out: soon, it is likely to achieve the situation of pure electricity, plug-in hybrid, and extended range when talking about the new energy sector alone.


But as we stride into the new year, we find that the plot has not developed in the expected direction.

I thought that with the help of the power of the "fuel tank", the extended range would be completely brilliant, but this is not the case. Take the past July as an example. Even in the so-called "off-season", new energy vehicles still produced a brilliant answer, especially the retail penetration rate reached 54%, creating a record high.

Further splitting, the corresponding sales volume of pure electric vehicles reached 607000, with a year-on-year increase of 24.5%; The corresponding sales volume of plug-in hybrid reached 278000, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year; On the contrary, the corresponding sales volume was only 102000, down 10.4% year on year. From the perspective of cumulative retail sales from January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of 12.1% is also far lower than that of 35.2% of pure electric and 25.2% of plug-in hybrid.

Anyway, it reveals a slight weakness. Along the way, many readers will be curious about what happened, causing the protagonist of today's article to fall into the bottleneck of growth?

The answer is multidimensional.

01 some general trends are irreversible

In fact, the reason why the extended range is difficult to sell is well understood.

First of all, it must be the explosion of pure electricity that has largely squeezed the living space of the protagonists in today's article, especially in the mainstream mass market. The balance of the supply relationship between OEMs and consumers is gradually tilted toward the former.



At the same time, more and more guzao extended range users have entered the replacement cycle, and most of them have begun to choose pure electricity. Although a little heartbreaking, it is indeed the industry trend observed in the past half a year.

Just around me, there have been more than threeorfour cases.

Looking deeper, due to the overall cost, most of the extended range vehicles in this segment can not achieve long battery range, which inevitably leads to the increase of the frequency of energy supplement for car owners and the reduction of the use experience. As for the fuel consumption of the integrated feed, it can not compare with the plug-in and mix players of the same level. It is very embarrassing to be caught in the middle.

More often, it seems to undertake the task of supplementing the product sequence.

For example, the typical representative of new forces' car making is zero running. The sales volume composition of its currently popular SUVs is basically pure electric main attack and extended range assistance, which is contrary to the traditional perception of the outside world. However, new cars such as B10 and Bo1, whose prices have dropped to about 100000 yuan, have not even launched extended range versions.

Whether admit it or not, in the mainstream mass market, where "cake" is the most delicious, the protagonist of today's article wants to grab meat from pure electricity, including plug-in mixer, which is much more difficult than expected.

What about the middle and high-end market?

It is undeniable that in the past few years, thanks to the great killing of ideals and the world, the two "great demons" have indeed created a very prosperous scene together, and many OEMs envy the "flying together in quantity and price".

Immediately, many brands began to invest a lot of manpower, material and financial resources into the extended range track. This year, the original "blue ocean" quickly became crowded.

The intensity of fighting is increasing day by day.

Take ideal as an example. From January to July, we can clearly feel the huge pressure faced by this new force in making cars. The delivery volume in July plummeted year-on-year, from 50000 vehicles last year to 30000 vehicles, which is a very dangerous signal.

As for the question boundary, the first half of the year was also fluctuating. Fortunately, with the successive admission and abnormal performance of M9 and M8, the decline was reversed. With the arrival of M7, it is bound to recover.

However, with Huawei's endorsement, it belongs to the minority.

On the whole, the crazy involution of the extended range segment in the medium and high-end market has made everyone miserable. What is more serious is that the speed at which the "cake" becomes larger is far slower than the speed at which the looters increase. According to rough statistics, there will be no less than 15 SUVs with six seats this year, but the overall scale of the market does not change significantly.

In addition, in the current economic environment, potential customers' enthusiasm for "expensive cars" continues to weaken. Combined with the data released by the passenger Association, the retail sales of luxury cars in July was only 170000, down 20% year-on-year.

In essence, the "alarm" of danger has been sounded.

Feedback to the protagonist of today's article, the difficulty in selling will never be a short-term phenomenon, but will exist for a long time. In this process, it is doomed that only the head leaders with brand halo like ideals and circles can always share the share with ease. Most of the chasers who blindly bet on the poor resources of this track will probably end up with "cannon fodder".

In short, whether it is located in the mainstream mass market or the medium and high-end market, "Zengcheng is delicious, but it is not easy to eat."

02 extended range becomes high-end configuration

As stated at the beginning of the article, it is almost impossible to realize the "three parts of the world" of pure electricity, plug-in hybrid and extended range under the current situation.

As a bystander, referring to the wind direction of the industry, I feel more and more firmly that "with the passage of time and the development of technology, the mainstream mass market will form a pattern of pure electricity as the master, plug-in and hybrid as the supplement, and the increase range will be very small; in the middle and high-end market, the increase range will still be a force that can not be ignored. At the same time, with the support of the mature energy supplement system, the plate of pure electricity will gradually expand, and plug-in and hybrid will become a minority."

In other words, the real opportunity point of the extended range is clear at a glance.

Recently, from the perspective of the promotion logic of several heavy-duty products, "ultra fast charging+large battery+Long Endurance" has gradually become the new trend of the industry mainstream.

For example, the S800, a "traffic star" in the super luxury market, has a power battery capacity of 63 degrees and a pure electric endurance of more than 330 kilometers.

For example, Zhiji, who just held the "Star" extended range technology conference, moved out the 66 degree battery and 800V ultra fast charging high-voltage platform cooperated with Ningde times at one stroke, bringing pure electric endurance of more than 450 kilometers.

For another example, Xiao Peng, who made a high-profile official announcement last year to cut into the extended range track, in the latest catalogue of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the extended range version x9 came out after a long wait. It is reported that the battery life will also reach 450 kilometers.

"We now see a trend that the battery of extended range vehicles is getting bigger and bigger. The purpose is not to further reduce the frequency of use of the extended range device? Originally, it can be used fiveorsix times a year, but now it may only be used oneortwo times a year. It seems not very cost-effective to carry hundreds of kilograms of stuff every day when driving. Take people for example. I think it is very unreasonable to carry such heavy luggage every day."

It is very interesting that Li Bin talked about his views in an exclusive interview after the launch of Ledao L90. The implication is very similar: "the extended range battery is getting bigger and bigger. Why not buy pure electricity directly?"

There is nothing wrong with the truth, but I have actually communicated with many extended range car owners.

First of all, why buy the extended range? The answer they all gave was fear of mileage anxiety. Secondly, why do you buy extended range and use pure electricity for most working conditions? The responses were focused on the fact that power up saved too much money than gas. Besides, what are the pain points? The short battery life and the slow energy supplement speed of pure electricity have become the existence with the highest number of votes.

The large battery and ultra fast charging on the extended range vehicle are the final result of the continuous iteration and evolution of the OEMs in response to the urgent needs. "Whether it is reasonable or not, you can give it if you want."

It is precisely against this background that we look back at Li Bin's output, "from the perspective of Wei Lai, the starting point is good, but don't try to educate users. For many extended range vehicle owners, even if the extended range device is started once or twice a year, it's always more reassuring to put it there than thousands of replacement stations."

The vast Chinese car market has created a technological route that can dominate.

From my personal point of view, I would like to say, "in the past, extended range has an absolute advantage over pure electricity - lower comprehensive manufacturing costs. But now, with the sharp decline in the cost of raw materials for power batteries, this advantage has almost been gradually erased."

On the contrary, the cost of this year's extended range vehicles equipped with "ultra fast charging+large battery+Long Endurance" is even higher than that of some pure electric vehicles of the same level. After unremitting blowing, this power system has become the "high-end configuration" in the minds of many people.

More bluntly, a new energy vehicle, whether SUV or sedan, trying to enter the medium and high-end market, once it has its help, the terminal explanation cost will be far lower than that of pure electric players of the same level, and the enterprise management level can also obtain higher premium and gross profit.

This also explains why the ideal and enviable fundamental reason for the world, "which is the backward technology of extended range? It is the profit cow."

In the future, for most brands, from joint venture to independent, it is still their destiny to sell the so-called "expensive cars" and embrace the protagonist of today's article.

Extended range is hard to sell, but it can't stand the fragrance, especially the incarnation of "high-end configuration". The inside doorway, playing methods and rules have been adjusted and reshaped again.

To gain a firm foothold in the medium and high-end market, "ultra fast charging+large battery+Long Endurance" is the shortcut. Of course, in addition to the technology itself, brand image, marketing methods, product pricing and other dimensions cannot be too short. You taste, you taste.

From the perspective of the sales structure from January to July this year, the increase accounted for less than 10% of the total new energy market, which has always been a game for a small number of people.

But there are always cannon fodder, moths and fire